Strictly dialogue

Recent Egyptian-Iranian talks have promised no breakthroughs, Dina Ezzat reports

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For a few years now Cairo and Tehran have managed to engage in dialogue, however cautiously; and informed sources insist such caution will continue to characterise Egyptian-Iranian exchange. Following Iran's Assistant Foreign Minister Abbas Irakachi's day-long sojourn at the Foreign Ministry last week -- together with other delegates from both sides, he met with Egyptian assistant foreign ministers Hussein Derar, Naeil Gabr and Wafaa Bassim -- it seems the prospects for resuming full diplomatic relations remain dim. Relations were severed by Iran in the wake of the Islamic Revolution to protest against President Anwar El-Sadat granting the ousted Shah refuge and further aggravated on the assassination of Sadat by Iranian-supported Egyptian Islamists.

Recent Egyptian-Iranian talks have tackled not only bilateral relations but joint and conflicting interests in Asia, focussing on the International Agency for Atomic Energy. Positively, Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit made a brief personal appearance -- a courtesy call that insiders say Abul-Gheit "did not have to and was not expected to" pay -- and Derar held an Iftar in honour of Irakachi, a move for which he reportedly asked official approval. Sources agree that Irakachi's treatment indicate a move towards warmer relations on the part of Cairo, but hasten to add that it shows little more than willingness to undertake a tour d'horizon on issues of common interest like the Iraq file in a strictly bilateral context and with a view to "improving cooperation", particularly as regards Tehran's support for militant Islamists attempting to operate in Egypt. According to one source, both sides chose to steer clear of security issues: "there was rather a [tentative] agreement that security representatives should meet to address such issues in detail."

For its part, the Iranian Embassy refused to comment on the meeting but sources agree that, while no date or venue has been set for such talks, bilateral cooperation is definitely on the agenda. They say that, whether or not they are tailored to the resumption of diplomatic relations, some degree of security cooperation, however informal, will be an inevitable outcome of such talks: "we are not naïve enough to expect the Iranians to promptly address our security concerns. We know that they have been keen on improving relations with Egypt but we are fully aware that they are not yet ready to pay the security price that we require -- not in full." Be that as it may, "a timid yet keen" dialogue is definitely in the interest of both Cairo and Tehran, especially where questions of regional leadership in the next few decades are concerned.

According to scholar Mohamed El-Said Idris, an Iranian affairs specialist, systematic Arab support for Iran in its current confrontation with the West hinges on Tehran's ability to secure Cairo's sympathy. While Cairo remains opposed in principle to any military escalation of that confrontation, it would be in Tehran's interest if it expressed that view more assertively: "Egypt is a direct diplomatic objective that Iranians have been keen on targeting. Now is the time for them to work for it." For its part, Cairo has more reason to respond to an Iranian overture now than before: "Egypt is increasingly aware of Iran's growing influence in the region, especially on matters of direct concern to Egyptian strategic interests including Gaza, Egypt's immediate backyard. This is not to mention the Gulf, Iraq, Lebanon and -- not least -- Syria."

According to both commentators and officials, Egypt's interest is real. While Iran undertook talks with other Arab states, Egypt was concerned about being excluded from negotiations relating to the future of the region, especially as regards Iraq and Iran's role there in the case of reduced US military presence. According to Idris, "for the longest time Egypt has been giving Iran the cold shoulder but it can no longer afford to do." For a year now, together with Jordan, the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council and the US, Egypt has been involved in strategic consultations known as the "6+2+1" with the object of containing Iran's influence to help endorse "moderation" in the face of "extremism" -- a drive spearheaded by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. It seems Egypt is now ready to explore parallel vistas, notwithstanding its commitment to that arrangement, a willingness shared by Saudi Arabia.

Improved cooperation will take more than Iran addressing Egypt's security concerns, however: it must also be willing to revise its "unhelpful" intervention in Palestinian, Lebanese and Iraqi conflicts. As one official source puts it, "if Iran was to continue to play the game of igniting extremist sentiments and inciting the Shia-Sunni tension in Iraq as well as Arab countries, especially in the Gulf, Egypt would be very apprehensive about improving cooperation with Iran beyond the very limited context of regulating the debate over nuclear proliferation in the Middle East." Egypt must take US reactions into account anyway, but officials insist that, contrary to some press reports, Washington has not expressed the least upset about the Iranian assistant foreign ministers' visit or indeed future talks between Cairo and Tehran. "It was the Egyptian foreign minister who tried to arrange a meeting between Rice and Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchaher Moutaki last May in Sharm El-Sheikh on the fringe of the international meeting over Iraq," one Egyptian diplomat commented. He added that in the context of ongoing Egyptian-American consultations there is no disagreement on this matter.

Egypt is a member of an informal diplomatic gathering dubbed "6+2+1" which, formulated a year ago, brings the US together with Egypt, Jordan and the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council with the aim of monitoring with a view to containing Iranian influence in the Middle East.

Yet Idris says this is simply not true: "Cairo knows Washington is not willing to grant Iran the friendship of US allies and the Egyptian authorities have no reason to risk falling out with Washington over this matter." Whatever the case, it is almost certain that no breakthroughs can be expected in Egyptian-Iranian relations just yet.