Presidential focus

Egypt and Saudi Arabia are trying to ensure a smooth presidential elections process in Lebanon. Dina Ezzat reports

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This week, President Hosni Mubarak received a letter from Lebanese political leader Walid Jumblatt. The letter addressed recent political developments in Lebanon and demanded prompt Egyptian support for selecting a presidential nominee that is accepted both by the parliamentary majority -- to which Jumblatt is aligned -- and the minority that is supported by Syria.

The mandate of current Lebanese President Emile Lahoud expires next month. Lahoud is serving the end of an extended two-year mandate imposed by Damascus and which sparked the prolonged political crisis in Lebanon when political figures opposing the extension, including Rafik Hariri, were assassinated. Syria stands accused by the parliamentary majority and many in the international community. The minority holds Israel responsible for crimes they say are tailored to stir instability in Lebanon.

"Syria and its allies in Lebanon," Jumblatt told Mubarak, "are aiming to undermine the process of electing a new president through what might be a new series of assassinations." Jumblatt was once a close ally of Damascus. Today, he accuses the Lebanese opposition of attempting to "suspend the constitution" and prevent the election of a new president.

According to the Lebanese constitution, the election of a new president is administered by parliament. The first session that should have allowed for this selection was scheduled for 25 September. A two-thirds quorum was required for the session to go ahead. A boycott by opposition parliamentarians annulled the session.

According to Egyptian sources, Jumblatt is not the only majority leader to have voiced concern over the intentions of "certain quarters of the opposition" to hamper the presidential elections in order to force acceptance of a candidate of their choice who is loyal to Syria. Lebanese majority leader Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora reportedly called upon Egypt and Saudi Arabia to coordinate their efforts and spare Lebanon from "the damaging consequences of missing the presidential elections deadline [next month]".

Sources say that Al-Siniora did not exclude the possibility of civil clashes -- although not necessarily an all-out civil war -- should November come and go without a new president being elected. Al-Siniora indicated his willingness to accept "a compromise [candidate] that would not be particularly close to Syria nor necessarily a full loyalist".

Both Cairo and Riyadh have therefore instructed their ambassadors in Lebanon to "encourage the trend towards compromise" in both the majority and minority camps. "Now is not the time to point fingers or to blame one or another party for the current Lebanese crisis," said one informed source. He added that the objective now is to shorten the long list of presidential candidates "by excluding all those on the two extremes: those who are completely opposed to Syria and those who are completely on its side."

The current joint Egyptian-Saudi attempt to "encourage compromise" is meant to set a clear path away from public criticism of Syria's role in Lebanon. This, sources say, is the reason why neither Egypt nor Saudi Arabia chose to announce news related to the Jumblatt letter, or other Lebanese majority leader complaints over what they claim to be "Syria's attempts to undermine Lebanese independence and to re-institute Syrian hegemony over Lebanon".

"We are not at all interested in supporting any public attack on Syria," one Egyptian official stressed. "There is nothing that the Lebanese could gain from antagonising Syria now," he added. Both Egypt and Saudi Arabia believe that any verbal attack on Syria now could undermine the initiative taken by pro-Syrian parliament speaker Nabih Berri to reach consensus through dialogue with majority leader Saad Al-Hariri. Both Cairo and Riyadh seem comfortable with the pace and progress -- even if slow -- of this dialogue. Both are also satisfied with the support cautiously granted to this dialogue by Maronite leader Nasrallah Sfeir.

Once the presidential election deadline is met, sources say, both Cairo and Riyadh will engage to help the Lebanese live up to the constitutional mandate of forming a coalition government. At that point, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are likely to encourage Arab League Secretary- General Amr Moussa to resume his mediation efforts with conflicting Lebanese political parties. Moussa suspended his mission prior to the presidential elections process in view of the reluctance of concerned parties to compromise on power sharing.

Arab League sources say that Moussa supports the election of a consensus president and that any next step will be decided upon the outcome of the presidential elections process.

The intensive Arab diplomatic effort to encourage prompt agreement on a consensus president is partially motivated by concerns to avoid an outbreak of political violence. It is also motivated by concerns over the intentions of certain players in the international community -- particularly lead players in the UN Security Council. "At this point there is nothing that is being officially proposed, but should there be another assassination in Lebanon, or should the November deadline be missed, then we know that some [UN] resolution will be proposed, and we fear that the resolution would lead to heavy international interference in Lebanese affairs," one Egyptian source said.

According to UN Security Council Resolution 1559, the deadline for presidential elections should be promptly met. Failure to live up to this deadline could open the path for further foreign intervention. In his letter addressed to Mubarak and the Saudi monarch, Jumblatt demanded the assistance of both Egypt and Saudi Arabia in fully implementing Resolution 1559.