Different face, same policy
The resignation of Iran's chief nuclear negotiator is unlikely to change the course of tense Iranian-Western relations,
Rasha Saad reports
Since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took office in 2005, six of his cabinet members, including the central bank chief, ministers of oil, social affairs and vice-president, have resigned. The resignations, though indicative, attracted little international attention.
The resignation of national security chief and top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani on Saturday, however, caused international shock. Iran's sensitive nuclear programme is at the centre of world attention amid increasing reports that the Islamic republic might be the target of a US military strike.
Iran promptly insisted on Sunday that its policy in the nuclear crisis with the West would not change, amid fears his successor would take an even tougher line. Larijani's successor, Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Jalili, is a hardliner and a close confidante of the president, and is believed by analysts to share Ahmadinejad's unrelenting refusal of offering any concession to the West.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohamed Ali Husseini insisted the change in personnel did not herald any switch in policy. There has been no official reason given for the resignation, but much speculation has arisen. Some say that Larijani wanted to pursue other activities in politics and had "personal reasons" for his desire to step down.
One Iranian official, who asked not to be named, said Larijani might be considering becoming a candidate for parliament in the elections next March. Others point out that the resignation came just one day after Ahmadinejad flatly contradicted a statement by Larijani that Russian President Vladimir Putin had tabled a proposal on the Iranian nuclear programme during his visit to Iran Tuesday.
Differences between Larijani and Ahmadinejad were also revealed earlier this year when the president contradicted Larijani on whether Iran would attend a meeting in Egypt to discuss Iraq. Larijani travelled to Baghdad in May to discuss Iran's conditions to attend the meeting but was upset, according to reports, after a reporter at Baghdad Airport said Ahmadinejad had already confirmed that Iran would attend the meeting.
The two men reportedly also had a public spat in April 2006, when Larijani said Iran was ready for talks with the United States about Iraq but then was contradicted by Ahmadinejad. A year passed before the first US-Iranian talks began in Baghdad.
Despite his resignation, Larijani is scheduled to join his successor for talks on Iran's nuclear programme with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana in Rome on Tuesday. Larijani is also to remain on Iran's Supreme Security Council in his position as the representative of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Occasional speculation about Larijani's resignation is that he wanted the government to take a less confrontational line on the nuclear issue, but these differences, if true, were never aired in public. Western analysts say that Jalili is likely to take a harder line in nuclear negotiations. According to one, "with Larijani out of the picture there is nobody to talk to, and it indicates that the supreme leader is not in a mood for a compromise either."
A Western diplomat, who asked not to be named, told AFP that Jalili has a "stubborn personality" and was in the habit "of giving interminable sermons during talks". The influential head of the Iranian parliament's research centre, Ahmed Tavakoli, said "the experience and positions held by Larijani are not comparable with the deputy foreign minister, who has little experience."
The reformist Etemad Melli newspaper warned that with the negotiating team now entirely controlled by those close to Ahmadinejad, "the president and his allies are perfectly aware of the price of such a decision."
In the longer term, European officials suggested, the move could hurt Iranian hardliners, because their failure in negotiations could rally support for a long-stalled new round of punitive sanctions against Iran. Iranian analysts also argue Larijani's resignation is widely being seen as a boost for Ahmadinejad's defiant position, which in the short term could set back talks with Britain, France and Germany on behalf of the United States and the EU.
Yet inferences that the resignation will have a negative impact on nuclear programme talks is misleading. While Larijani may have sometimes adopted a more pragmatic tone than Ahmadinejad, he remained a hardline regime insider.
At home, Larijani has often criticised and fought reformist policies. As radio and TV chief, Larijani tried to curb foreign cultural influence over young Iranians by excising imported programming from TV schedules. In January 2004, this led some 150 reformist MPs to criticise the decision as causing Iranians to turn to foreign media.
Even the president's office has criticised the state broadcaster for censoring. One complaint came after former president Mohamed Khatami and parliament speaker Mehdi Karrubi described a move by the Guardian Council to ban reformists from the February 2004 elections as "unworthy". This did not get a mention.
Larijani in turn accused reformists of undermining Islamic values. "If reforms are not undertaken for the sake of religion, justice and morality, they do not constitute reforms," he said, according to the Toseeh daily.
On the nuclear issue, Larijani held a firm position on controversial nuclear negotiations between Iran and the West. In 2006, Larijani immediately scrapped a suspension of uranium enrichment activities agreed under the former negotiating team, saying that Iran would never swap the "pearl" of its nuclear technology for the "candies" offered by the Europeans.
In fact, Larijani's appointment to head the Supreme Security Council, replacing moderate and pragmatic cleric Hassan Rouhani, was the shifting point seen by analysts then as a signal that Iran was preparing to harden its stance on the nuclear issue. Rouhani has lately lashed out at Ahmadinejad for positions that he says have hurt Iran.
"Today in the international arena, we are now more than ever under threat. A country's diplomacy is successful when it doesn't allow the enemy to find more allies against it. Unfortunately, our enemies are increasing," Rouhani said in a speech, noting France's new alliance with the US on Iran.
The position of Larijani as chief negotiator did a little if anything to prevent escalation with the West. Larijani carried out months of sensitive talks with the EU's Solana, but these nevertheless failed to reach a deal to end the standoff between Iran and the West.
For its part, the US's stance -- joined by the EU in a later stage -- vis-à-vis the Iranian nuclear question has been unchanged no matter the background or flexibility of chief negotiators. With International Atomic Energy Agency reports stating that there is no solid proof that Iran is seeking to manufacture a nuclear bomb, recommending that diplomacy resolve the issue, US endeavours to press sanctions have been regarded as reflective of US political reasoning.
In fact, the US has been lobbying for sanctions since the nuclear file was open in 2003 when reformists were in charge, repeatedly arguing against dialogue with the Islamic Republic. Since, there have been frequent leaked reports of possible military strikes, either from the US or Israel, which Iran perceives as part of an ongoing psychological battle.
The UN has already imposed two levels of sanctions on Iran for its failure to suspend uranium enrichment activities. Meanwhile, as Iran's new nuclear negotiator prepares for his first meeting with Solana, the British government has already announced that it will seek further sanctions against Iran.
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