Shifting focus

The NDP's ninth congress opens on Saturday with socio-economic issues at the top of its agenda, reports Gamal Essam El-Din

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When an estimated 6,500 to 7,000 NDP delegates gather on Saturday for the opening of the party's ninth congress few expect political reform to be the subject of heated debate. Rather, under the new slogan "With us, our country moves forward" they will concentrate their energies on a wide-ranging socio-economic agenda.

According to Gamal Mubarak, the 43-year-old son of President Hosni Mubarak and chairman of the NDP's powerful Policies Committee, the four-day congress will address five key policy areas -- improving public services, particularly in the health and education sectors, eradicating poverty, fighting unemployment, introducing new investment incentives and reforming the agricultural sector.

"The reform of this sector will focus on improving the performance of agricultural cooperatives and restructuring the Principal Bank for Development and Agricultural Credit [PBDAC]," said Mubarak. He also revealed that citizenship rights and national security will feature on the agenda.

All salient issues, said NDP Secretary-General Safwat El-Sherif, will be discussed within the framework of implementing President Mubarak's 2005 presidential election programme. President Mubarak has instructed the congress to pay particular attention to those elements within his election programme that concern social justice and alleviating poverty.

"President Mubarak has ordered that social issues should form the lynchpin of this year's debates," says El-Sherif.

Independent pundits attribute the shift in the NDP's focus from political to socio-economic issues to the wave of unrest that was such a feature of the summer.

"From early summer till now," says Al-Ahram economic analyst Ahmed El-Sayed El-Naggar, "poor and limited-income Egyptians have taken to the streets. They have protested against the scarcity of potable water in what came to be called the revolt of the thirsty. We also saw large numbers of railway and textile workers taking industrial action, most recently in the Nile Delta city of Al-Mahala Al-Kubra, demanding higher salaries and objecting to privatisation policies." Economic growth may have reached 7.2 per cent, says El-Naggar, but the benefits of this have yet to trickle down to the majority of Egyptians. "Many believe the NDP's economic policies favour the wealthy businessmen, and that perception was clearly enough to spur them onto the streets to vent their anger."

NDP leaders, he argues, have become increasingly concerned that the simmering discontent of workers and the poor will play into the hands of the opposition and dissent movements such as Kifaya and the Muslim Brotherhood. "This explains the sudden shift this year in the focus of the NDP's congress towards social and economic issues and away from political debate."

On 24 October, Gamal Mubarak announced that the NDP had reached an agreement with the government of Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif that spending on social services should be prioritised. During the course of the congress, cabinet ministers are expected to announce that LE1.5 billion has been earmarked for new drinking water projects as well as a timetable for completing sewage networks covering 1,500 villages.

The congress will include seven open sessions and 14 committee meetings, the vast majority discussing social and economic issues. Among the most controversial discussions will be those on the future of state subsidies. On 27 October, Gamal Mubarak said the state could not afford to offer the current levels of subsidy indefinitely. He pointed out that direct subsidies to the energy sector alone now amount to more than LE40 billion a year, and there is an urgent need to impose order on social spending.

The congress will also debate the draft anti- terror law which is intended to replace the 26- year-old emergency law, as well as evaluate the NDP's political reform programme. The first day of the congress, said El-Sherif, will be devoted to reviewing the party's political reforms and to evaluating its own internal elections. The latter have been the subject of reports of disagreements between Ahmed Ezz, the multi- millionaire iron and steel magnate who heads the NDP's Committee of Organisational and Membership Affairs, and Secretary-General El-Sherif. NDP members complained to El-Sherif that the internal elections were manipulated by Ezz in an attempt to bolster his powerbase within the party. El-Sherif responded by delaying the naming of the chairmen of NDP provincial offices.

Moufid Shehab, minister of state for parliamentary affairs and NDP assistant secretary- general, will outline the new draft anti-terror and local administration laws. Amr Hashem Rabie, an analyst at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, believes the political agenda of this year's congress is insignificant because the majority of NDP leaders believe that "after passing 34 constitutional amendments last March political reform is now complete". What will happen now, he predicts, is that the security forces will be given draconian powers on the grounds that they are necessary to combat terrorism, and that NGOs, particularly those concerned with human rights, will be subject to greater legislative control.

The first day of the congress will also feature the re-election of President Mubarak as NDP chairman. The second day will see elections for the 31-member political politburo and the 29- member secretariat-general. El-Sherif told the daily Rose El-Youssef that the elections will result in a major reshuffle among the members of the party's two most senior bodies.

President Mubarak, in his capacity as party chairman, will select candidates for the politburo and secretariat "and will then ask congress members to ratify the candidates", said El-Sherif.

Rumours are rife that El-Sherif will be given the honorary post of deputy chairman while Gamal Mubarak consolidates his position and accrues greater powers.

"I guess that Gamal Mubarak will be promoted to a higher position, most probably becoming secretary-general, or at least putting one of his henchmen in this position," says Rabie. "He is now the NDP's second man, holding all the reins of power in his hands."

Gamal Mubarak is slated to address the congress outlining the philosophy behind the NDP's socio-economic and political policies and is expected to open the debate on national security matters, giving emphasis to the decision to relaunch Egypt's nuclear power programme. On Monday, President Mubarak announced that Egypt intended to press ahead with plans to build a number of nuclear power stations.