Moving forward

Gamal Mubarak skipped the red tie for the NDP congress, but is he saving one for later, asks Dina Ezzat

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Fast track prudence Recasting the plot Foreign policy projections In the face of convention

At the end of four days of consecutive and well-publicised meetings, Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) fell short of providing a much anticipated answer for the political question that hovers over the country's future: What plans are there for Gamal Mubarak, the influential president's son? Hints have emerged, however, of possible future scenarios.

Gamal Mubarak is now a member of the NDP's Higher Committee, established this week and from which the NDP, in accordance with the 2005 constitution amendments, would nominate a future presidential candidate. The next presidential elections are scheduled for 2011. According to some NDP figures speaking off-the-record to Al-Ahram Weekly, Gamal Mubarak is indeed an eligible NDP candidate -- the most eligible, some say.

Meanwhile, the NDP has shortened the interval between its congress meetings from five to four years. As such, the NDP congress would meet next in 2011, on the eve of the presidential elections.

Gamal Mubarak himself neither confirmed nor denied the scenario of his running for president. "I am now in charge of the party's policies. This is my mission and my mandate. This is what I am focussed on now," he said. He stopped short of stating that he has "neither the intention nor the desire" to ascend to being head of state, as he had done during a television interview in March 2006. He simply noted there are "clear constitutional steps to be followed".

If Gamal Mubarak's plans can be judged by his political posture during this week's NDP congress it would be false to argue that he is not seen by many as bracing himself for a higher political standing. It was impossible to miss his growing self- confidence, expanding awareness of home and foreign policy issues, and his firmer command in running the congress. According to several rank-and-file NDP members, Gamal Mubarak is the de facto "second man" to President Hosni Mubarak in the party.

Members of the NDP's old guard -- possibly with the exception of Secretary-General Safwat El-Sherif -- have now paled in the shadow of the president's son and the "New Thinking" group he leads. "Now they would be very happy if they made a single long statement in public," commented one NDP member.

But can Gamal Mubarak make it through free, fair and perhaps monitored elections? Some who spoke to the Weekly in Cairo during the congress entertained doubts. Othes voiced enthusiasm. Most of those of a higher socio-economic background spoke positively of Gamal Mubarak whom they see as a "well- educated", "well-spoken" and "open-minded". Those on the other end of the social spectrum, however, were not as confident, especially given that they have felt few of the socio-economic gains reported by the NDP this week. Their concern is not about who will rule, but how the next president can reduce their economic burdens.

Members of the middle class generally echoed indifference to the identity of the next president. Most argued the need for improving the economic situation. Some demanded a wider democratic margin from "whoever comes next". However, it was from the middle class that direct opposition to the nomination of Gamal Mubarak was voiced, on the basis of his "lack of political credentials" or sensitivity to the "son following father" scenario.

Gamal Mubarak's supporters from within and without the party say he could be the first non-military head of state who could maintain "the current state of stability" and prevent an "otherwise inevitable" Islamist take-over that could change the face of Egypt dramatically for the worse. They argue that his performance during the past five years, since he was introduced into the NDP's higher political echelon, is promising.

According to press statements made by media tycoon Emad Adib, "Gamal Mubarak is the best option for Egypt's next president." In a pre-NDP congress appearance on the widely viewed "Al-Qahira A-Yom" nightly show, Adib stated affirmatively that Gamal Mubarak is simply the most suited candidate to succeed President Mubarak. He argued that it would be unfair to dismiss such "a good candidate who could serve the nation's interests" just because he is the son of the president, especially when there is no relevant constitutional prohibition to his candidacy.

Nader Fergani, author of four UN Development Programme reports on human development in the Arab world, begs to differ. According to Fergani, Gamal Mubarak's only asset is his privileged position within a ruling regime that has done little to promote social welfare -- despite the NDP congress slogan "With us, our country moves forward". Accounts of the nation's progress provided by Gamal Mubarak and his entourage are wrong, Fergani argues. The little economic progress that has been achieved has only served the clique surrounding the regime, "whose pockets got inflated while the population of street children is now ranging between two to three million."

For Fergani, it is "a farce" to brag over successes when human development has remained static. Any increase of Egypt's GDP, he argues, is being eliminated by the worsening distribution of this wealth, paving the way towards "serious social conflict" between the extremely rich and the extremely poor.

Such economic woes, Fergani added, are compounded by a sharp decline in personal and public freedoms.

Fergani is not willing to sign up to the "Gamal Mubarak is the only alternative to the Muslim Brotherhood" argument. Nor is he willing to dismiss the right of the Muslim Brotherhood -- outlawed but undeniably popular -- to nominate a presidential candidate, so long as that candidate upholds a consensual political and economic agenda.

Fergani does not seek to dictate to the NDP who it can and cannot support in any upcoming presidential elections. It is Gamal Mubarak's ability to sustain rule that Fergani is doubtful of.

For his part, Gamal Mubarak acknowledged that speculation over his political future is sure to continue. He also conceded that his efforts would continue to be cast in both positive and negative light, and that some of the economic policies he is advocating are not particularly popular. However, he expressed determination to fulfil the "mandate" he accepted in 2002.

That mandate was his ascent to the top of the influential Policies Committee. Back then in a nod to Western tradition he wore a red tie for the occasion. This week, however, he appeared less cheerful in business-like stripes. Perhaps he is saving that sartorial card for 2011 when the NDP congress reconvenes, possibly to nominate him for president.