Flexing muscles

Washington spoke out against compromise between the government and Hizbullah this week, reports Lucy Fielder

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A peacekeeper of the United Nations Interim Force in southern Lebanon (UNIFIL) sits atop his armoured vehicle as he monitors the border between Lebanon and Israel

Washington gave this week the clearest indication yet of its stance towards Lebanon's presidential election. United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned against compromise between its ruling allies and the Hizbullah-led opposition, which takes issue with US policy and a United Nations resolution aimed at disarming it.

All other internal and diplomatic initiatives have focussed on the need for a candidate acceptable to both sides to steer Lebanon out of a political crisis that has dragged on for nearly three years, intensifying late last year when Hizbullah and allied ministers pulled out of the government. Since then, the Western-backed, anti-Syrian government of Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora and the opposition led by Syrian- and Iranian-backed Hizbullah have played tug-of-war. Failure to elect a president could result in two parallel governments, plunging the divided country into sectarian street-fighting or worse. Parties on all sides are reported to be training and rearming.

Reports emerged this week that, for its part, Hizbullah flexed its muscle by conducting its biggest military manoeuvres since last summer's war with Israel. Although the interminable discussions and diplomacy continued, it is clear the presidential struggle reverberates far beyond Lebanon's narrow borders, and the focus is the Shia guerrillas' "weapons of resistance".

"I think there is a lot of talk right now about compromise," US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told journalists at the weekend. "That is fine, but any candidate for president or any president needs to be committed to Lebanon's sovereignty and independence, needs to be committed to resolutions that Lebanon has signed on to, and needs to be committed to carrying on the tribunal." The last point referred to the international tribunal to investigate the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri in 2005, which the 14 March ruling anti- Syrian movement blames on Damascus. Syria sees the court as a political tool to try its regime.

US statements have lately twinned the presidency with the mention of UN Security Council resolutions, highlighting Washington's desire to see a Lebanese president committed to one in particular: Resolution 1559 of September 2004, which stipulates disarmament of Hizbullah and Palestinian factions.

"Rice's statement is the strongest sign we've had from the US so far as to where it stands on the presidential election," said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb of the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East Centre in Beirut. "The political conflict is essentially an extension of the July War, it has now become a political strategy to neutralise Hizbullah."

A late October meeting between Sunni 14 March leader Saad Al-Hariri and Christian leader Michel Aoun, who is allied to Hizbullah, generated cautious optimism. It was the first time they had met since Hizbullah and its allies went into formal opposition. Al-Hariri also met Amal leader and parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, who represents the Shia community, including his ally Hizbullah. Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir has edged closer to the centre, perhaps mindful of Aoun's enduring popularity, becoming increasingly insistent on a compromise candidate and adherence to the constitution.

But the meetings produced nothing concrete. And if Washington is serious about discouraging a deal amenable to both sides, such initiatives could prove worthless.

After two postponements, MPs are scheduled to vote for a president on 12 November. But politicians openly predict another delay. Many expect an 11th-hour election before the clock strikes the death-knell of Emile Lahoud's controversial term on 24 November. The extension of Lahoud's mandate under Syrian pressure three years ago galvanised opposition to Damascus's control over its weaker neighbour.

Syria's opponents blame it for a string of assassinations including that of Al-Hariri's, and say Damascus retains influence in Lebanon through its allies and intelligence apparatus. Washington and France led the chorus this week warning Syria not to interfere in the vote.

Rice met her Syrian counterpart, Walid Al-Moallem, on the sidelines of a conference on Iraq this weekend in Ankara and made clear that interference from Lebanon's eastern flank would not be tolerated. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner delivered the same message. "The problem is not in Damascus, but in Washington, which opposes any compromise candidate and any dialogue between the Lebanese," Al-Moallem told pan-Arab newspaper Al-Hayat in response.

The International Crisis Group (ICG) said last month that disarming Hizbullah was unachievable for now. "If the election is to be more than a mere prelude to the next showdown, all parties and their external allies need to move away from maximalist demands and agree on a package deal that accepts Hizbullah's armed status while constraining the ways in which its weapons can be used," an ICG report recommended.

It remains to be seen whether Rice's statement signals implacable opposition to such a step. Presidential hopeful Boutros Harb, seen as a moderate within the anti-Syrian movement, said this week the president might be elected outside parliament, suggesting the president's second residence Beiteddine Palace, which is in the Chouf mountains largely loyal to anti-Syrian Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. Such a step would likely be unilateral, because the opposition would reject it.

Lebanon's constitution stipulates that a two-thirds consensus of MPs is needed in the first ballot, and if that fails, a simple majority in subsequent rounds.

Saad-Ghorayeb saw the two most likely scenarios as follows: no president is chosen before 24 November, prompting 14 March to elect one by simple majority even in the first session. The opposition would probably then appoint its own rival. In the other scenario, Lahoud stays on, which would be anathema to Washington, and appoints an interim government. A third option often touted is Lahoud handing power to army commander Michel Suleiman for a transitional period.

So the Lebanese will be watching regional developments and the US-Iran quarrel for the next few weeks with more than the usual trepidation. Lebanese media reported Israeli manoeuvres on the southern border this week, less than two months after Israel bombed an unknown target in Syria. Hizbullah's Al-Manar channel said Israeli planes, which regularly violate Lebanese airspace, flew lower than usual and all the way to Beirut. Israel has also conducted military preparations on the border and manoeuvres in the occupied Golan Heights and northern Galilee.

In response, it appears that Hizbullah carried out a large- scale manoeuvre south of the Litani River. Pro-opposition independent papers As-Safir and Al-Akhbar reported the movements, as did Al-Manar. At the time of writing, there was no statement from Hizbullah, but confirmations from Hizbullah officials had appeared in several media.

Thousands of militants took part in the simulated defensive operation in preparation for an Israeli attack, Al-Akhbar reported. Observers said the fighters were unarmed so UNIFIL observers monitoring a cessation of hostilities after last summer's war would not report a violation.

"It seems that the statements uttered by [Hizbullah Secretary-General] Sayed Nasrallah a while ago about Hizbullah's missile capabilities and about "the big surprise" in its possession did not succeed in deterring the enemy, so the leadership of the resistance was forced to take a decision to carry out a different and unprecedented step: large manoeuvres carried out south of the Litani River," Al-Akhbar reported. Nasrallah supervised the exercise, the paper said. Prime Minister Al-Siniora dismissed the exercise as a "simulation on paper" that was never enacted.