Melting caps

By Salama A Salama

---

We're too busy with our immediate problems to look into the future, for example to 2050 or beyond. But more advanced countries are doing just that, and their findings are far from reassuring. Over the past few days, the UN released two important reports about human development and climate change. Both reports speak of a world that is totally different from ours, one in which resources available to poor countries would be even more limited than they are today.

Countries such as the UK have formed committees of experts and asked them to draw up long-term plans to face the consequences of climate change. Mustafa Kamal Tolba, our great scientist, demanded similar action, but no one listened. Aside from a few sensationalist headlines, noting that six million Egyptians may die if the Delta were submerged under sea level, we basically ignored the whole thing.

One report, to which hundreds of scientists from all over the world contributed, offers an alarming picture of what awaits the world in 2050. It proves, beyond reasonable doubt, that climate change is the result of human activities and that global warming is catastrophic to the future of humanity. Scientists expect temperature on this planet to rise anywhere between two and four degrees Celsius. As the polar ice caps melt, sea levels would rise, with destructive consequences for humankind. To imagine the extent of the crisis, keep in mind that nearly 60 per cent of the world's population live 100 kilometres or less from the sea.

As temperatures rise, coastal areas and river deltas would be inundated. Food supplies would shrink. Dangerous illnesses such as cancer and malaria would spread. All of this is the outcome of human activities involving heightened consumption of energy. Pollution, experts say, may be causing the premature death of two million people per year.

Africa will be among the worst hit places. The per capita production of food in Africa has already dropped by 12 per cent due to desertification, drought and soil erosion. Africa is now serving as a dumping ground for radioactive and other toxic refuse. Rich countries, which bear a major responsibility for climate change, understand the magnitude of injustice done to poor countries. A British report says that the changes facing the world can be compared with the Great Depression of the 1930s. This is why the world is coming up with a barrage of measures aimed to counter the impact of harmful emissions, encourage cleaner technology, and switch to renewable sources of energy. Where do we, in Egypt and the Arab world, stand on this issue?

The dangers lying ahead are not confined to the possible submergence of the Delta, the drying up of the Nile, and damage to the soil. The environmental destruction in our war- ravaged region involves landmines, depleted uranium, oil spillages and various types of solid and liquid waste pollution. The scattered efforts exerted by our governments remain mediocre and rarely venture beyond rhetoric. Basically, we've held a few conferences and demanded external aid.

Although most Arab countries have environmental laws, few of these are enforced; and governments tend to ignore them altogether to humour big business. Simple problems, such as smog, uncollected garbage and traffic jams seem to baffle our governments. What is the use of talking about melting polar ice caps when we cannot even address smog and clean the streets of garbage?