Zeno's paradox

As the end of 2007 approaches, the average driving speed in Greater Cairo is 21km per hour and going down, remarks Dena Rashed. Perhaps life in the city will come to a complete stop next year?

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Jam-packed again? Maybe a car broke down on the fork-less 6 October Bridge, or is it a football match at the Cairo Stadium? A high-profile official may be passing, as it were, prompting complete closure for alleged security reasons. Rush hour? An accident? In reality, of course, the number of vehicles in relation to the space available to them is reason enough for the jam; it is simply that, to while away the time, drivers come up with a variety of (conspiracy) theories to explain away the phenomenon. Designed for 4.5 million people, the metropolis is now home to 17. Cairo has always been full of contradictions. Today, incredibly, low-income neighbourhoods are shoulder to shoulder with the luxurious dwellings of the rich (whose investments have yet to trickle down the class hierarchy, we are told). In the last few decades, planning has gone wild, with building regulations and capacity considerations gone to the dogs: in space enough for 500,000 vehicles there crawl two million. Since different parts of the ever more shapeless city are all interconnected -- thanks, in large part, to the 6 October Bridge, which has its own known technical faults and, though frequently extended, along many stretches has space enough for two lanes only -- a blockage at one end of Cairo could result in congestion at the other end.

According to Serageddin Zaghloul, head of Cairo Traffic, 70 per cent of those who move from the eastern to western side of the city use the October Bridge on a daily basis. But the problems of "the Bridge", as it is frequently referred to in ominous or exasperated tones, goes beyond traffic as such: bumps need to be smoothed over, lights fixed and traffic regulations observed. Zaghloul believes that the traffic police is doing its best, with 20,000 licences withdrawn and 45,000 vehicles fined in September alone. Though as yet no figures have been released, the economic loss incurred on Egypt by traffic jams in Cairo -- the economic and political capital as well as the El Dorado of the provinces, with some 4,000 schools, 500 hospitals, over 550 historical sites and 82 hotels -- cannot be overestimated. In the downtown area alone, there are nine ministries, 58 banks and the campuses of the American University (though the latters plans on relocating to New Cairo in the course of 2008). Numerous solutions have been proposed for dealing with the traffic problems of Cairo, which is home to 20 per cent of the population -- the work of officials and intellectuals alike. Last month the government announced plans to establish a new administrative capital outside Cairo, to house parliament and the Shura Council; after President Hosni Mubarak cancelled the decision last month, the government announced that only ministries and key administrative buildings will be moved to 6 October City and New Cairo. The plan to relocate the administrative centre dates back to president Anwar El-Sadat, who established Sadat City for the purpose, though it was never executed; the buildings intended for the ministries are now occupied by Menoufiya University.

According to Cairo University's Urban Planning Faculty former dean Mahmoud Yousri, the motives behind a plan to relocate the city or establish a new one must be discussed before any such step can be taken: "Ways of reducing congestion should be discussed, although the city centre being such a traffic magnet, this remains one of the most intractable problems." He went on to discuss three possibilities: moving specific bodies -- commercial markets, ministries, whole-sale vendors -- outside the capital; decentralising Egypt, with attractive elements of Cairo broken up and distributed among different governorates; and the "impractical solution" of founding a new capital, which would involve moving all government offices and ministries as well as parliament and the Shura Council, eventually to be joined by malls and commercial centres, which automatically follow the crowds. "A very costly operation," in other words, "since it would siphon 80 per cent of available investments at a time when such money is needed to develop the country in general." Any solution, Yousri added, will not show results immediately: "The process is rather decades-long. It may be practical to move the ministries to the suburbs but at the same time we should be aware that very soon these cities are going to become part of the capital too, because they are very close to it."

Last March the cabinet's Information and Decision Support Centre conducted a poll on the plan to move ministries and government institutions and only 42 per cent of the sample supported the idea; 32 per cent were against it, nine per cent agreed conditionally and 17 per cent could not make up their mind. In general, women were more anti than pro, while people above 60 years old were in favour of the plan; the better the education and income of a citizen, the more likely that citizen was to endorse the idea. Some 74 per cent of those who opposed the plan felt that way because the institutions in question would be far from their homes. Alleviating congestion was the number one reason behind supporting the plan, while the most popular condition with those who agreed was the availability and ease of transportation to and from the new locations. However, Yousri soberly points out that such solutions are "like aspirin", with only a temporary effect. The cure lies, rather, in deflecting the population density away from Cairo. Shops and malls should not be planted in residential areas, and a law should define the activities and locations of newly established buildings. "Most importantly," he concluded, "safe, fast and cheap modes of transport are the only solution to the city's persistent traffic problems. If the government should subsidise anything at all, it should be transportation -- because only then will people be able to give up cars. A new burden will be lifted." (see pp. 2-3)

photo: Sherif Sonbol