After Benazir

Two weeks after her murder, Asif Zardari continues where his wife left off, writes Graham Usher in Islamabad

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Last week Pakistan's Election Commission pushed the country's parliamentary elections from 8 January to 18 February. In an address to the nation, President Pervez Musharraf said the delay was due to the violence and lawlessness that had ensued after the assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto in Rawalpindi on 27 December. "It was my personal desire to hold the election on schedule but this is not possible under the circumstances," he said.

Calling for "reconciliation" among Pakistan's political parties, he promised a suffrage "free, fair, transparent and peaceful". Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the opposition Muslim League of ex- premier Nawaz Sharif slammed the postponement. It was a ruse to spare Musharraf's ruling Pakistan Muslim League faction (PML-Q) the rod of retribution at the polls, they said. Many in Pakistan hold Musharraf and his allies responsible for Bhutto's murder. Do the elections and their outcome therefore prefigure a greater schism in Pakistan? Not necessarily, say sources.

Bhutto's death has yet to incur the convulsions many feared. The mayhem unleashed in her native Sindh province took three days to spend itself and then was gone. No mass protests have rocked Rawalpindi or Pakistan's other garrison towns. Rather most people have taken mourning to mean a return to normalcy. Above all, Bhutto's widower and political heir, Asif Zardari, has kept a lid on the emotions of his people by proving to be as politically shrewd as his wife.

In an opinion piece in The Washington Post on 4 January, Zardari called on "the United Nations to commence a thorough investigation of the circumstances, facts and cover-up of my wife's murder, modelled on the investigation into the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri". He also said the elections would not be credible unless new "neutral and independent" caretaker government and Election Commission were installed.

But nowhere did he call for Musharraf's ouster or for the restoration of the judiciary purged by him in the recent bout of martial law -- the clarion calls of Pakistan's opposition parties and civil society. On the contrary, he said the PPP would contest the elections. He also assured "the friends of democracy in the West, in particular the United States and Britain", that the party under him, no less than under Bhutto, would seek a "democratic, moderate and progressive Pakistan".

As a man more associated with skullduggery than diplomacy Zardari is in need of a makeover, especially in the West. But there were other reasons why he sought to fly the American flag of moderation.

Prior to Bhutto's assassination, Musharraf had reportedly told his intelligence agencies to fix a two-thirds majority for the PML-Q and its allies in the next elections. The power sharing "deal" brokered by the US in Dubai last July between he and Bhutto had run aground. Musharraf was determined to rig the polls come what may, including through the imposition of martial law. Bhutto was equally determined to denounce the rigging, not least through a 60-page dossier presented to US senators.

But mammoth fraud is now impossible, admits a government insider. "Bhutto wouldn't have swept the polls. But now she will, especially in Sindh. There has been a genuine outpouring of grief that cuts across party, ethnic and provincial lines. Women in the thousands will vote for the PPP".

Even if the wave of sympathy ebbs the crisis of legitimacy of Musharraf's regime ensures only one outcome will be deemed permissible, he says. "Our biggest problem now is that a fair election means a PPP victory -- no PPP victory means an unfair election".

In such a scenario Zardari and the PPP face a choice. They could join forces with Sharif and the other opposition parties in a national government predicated on Musharraf's resignation, the end of army's interference in governance and a consensus on the US-led war in Afghanistan. Such a turn would enjoy the support of the larger part of the Pakistan people as well as the PPP's more progressive wing.

Alternatively Zardari could resurrect the deal with Musharraf. If he does so, he will find a willing interlocutor in the Pakistan army, says the insider. "The establishment will facilitate a PPP victory. It suits them. The army sees itself as guardian of the state and defender of the faith. But in these difficult times it believes it should extract itself from the political mess and concentrate on the "war on terror". Musharraf thinks Zardari is a man he can do business with. And a PPP victory can be sold to the West as a restoration of democracy".

It is a "reconciliation" Washington would endorse. According to a piece in the Washington Post on 6 January, the US is convinced the deal with the PPP remains the surest way to salvage Musharraf. "For the Bush administration, the worst-case scenario is the PPP aligning with... Nawaz Sharif in a coalition to try to change the constitution and oust Musharraf", says Pakistan expert Stephen Cohen, quoted in the Washington Post.

The weeks ahead will show which road is taken. For all her rhetoric Bhutto concluded long ago that a path to even partial power in Pakistan went through the army GHQ in Rawalpindi and the Pentagon in Washington. There is nothing to suggest Zardari reads the map otherwise. The only difference is that Bhutto had the history, authority and charisma to take her party with her. Zardari has her handwritten will.