Strategic moves

A long-expected ruling in the trial of 40 members of the Muslim Brotherhood was postponed this week, raising questions about the state's strategy in its battle against the group, reports Jailan Halawi

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The stand-off between the state and the banned Muslim Brotherhood was further complicated on Tuesday when a military tribunal postponed its findings in the trial of 40 key figures from the group, six of whom were being tried in absentia, until 25 March. The trial includes the key figures and financiers of the Brotherhood, including the group's third-in-command, businessman Khairat El-Shater.

The 40 detainees were the first Brotherhood members to stand trial in a military court since 2001, after being referred to the tribunal last February on charges including terrorism and money laundering, though these were later reduced to simply belonging to a banned group.

The trial is the latest episode in a long relationship of move and counter-move between the state and the Brotherhood, which has oscillated between tolerance and accommodation and escalated confrontation. According to political analysts and leading figures from the Brotherhood, the current phase is one of "confrontation" between the state and the Brotherhood.

The trial, together with the series of recent crackdowns on the Brotherhood of which it is a part, aims to restrict the group's capabilities and sidetrack the government's most effective opposition group from the political arena.

Founded in 1928 by Hassan El-Banna, the Brotherhood has officially been banned since 1954, yet it won a fifth of the seats in People's Assembly in the 2005 elections, its candidates running as independents.

This electoral success, observers say, has alarmed the government, which is concerned that the Brotherhood may one day be in a position to claim power if it is not stopped.

As a result, recent events have resembled nothing so much as a game of power between the government and the Brotherhood, analysts interviewed by Al-Ahram Weekly say, with each side trying to gain the upper hand. The Brotherhood has been able to make some striking gains, despite the government's obvious upper hand.

The present trial and the state's crackdown on Brotherhood activities have led to speculation about the implications and repercussions of these developments on the broader political arena.

While some analysts warn that the state's tough line on the Brotherhood could lead to outbreaks of violence in what is already a sensitive political situation, others insist that "in such a peculiar relationship, where both sides are quite familiar with their rival, each plays their cards carefully, watching every inch of the ground on which they tread."

The state is thus promoting its crackdown as part of a pre-emptive strategy against "banned groups" that aim at destabilising the state, while the Brotherhood makes every effort to promote itself as a "peaceful" political force that aims at achieving reform through legitimate channels.

"In this battle, the intentions of neither side are always clear," said political analyst Amr Elshoubaki of the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.

The Brotherhood, which in recent years has managed to become the country's most effective opposition bloc, "seems determined to reach power by promoting itself as a peaceful political force aimed at bringing about reform through gaining public support," Elshoubaki said.

"But the state, which has the upper hand, is also determined not to let the Brotherhood reach power, and hence will engage in scoring points for as long as it takes, its blows aiming at knocking out the group's infrastructure, rather than knocking the group out altogether."

However, few analysts have been prepared to predict what will happen as a result of the postponement of Tuesday's tribunal ruling. Since the charges brought against the 40 men are no longer as serious as they were at first, it is likely that "the regime simply wants to keep them longer in jail," Elshoubaki said.

"While the clampdown might have dealt a heavy blow to the Muslim Brotherhood's hierarchy and disturbed its finances, the group has managed to utilise its ordeal to gain public support through its media campaigns,"

In response to the delay in Tuesday's ruling, the Brotherhood posted an article on its website referring to the group's decision to run in the forthcoming municipal elections on 8 April.

"The Muslim Brotherhood intends to contest [the municipal elections]," the article said, "thereby asserting its willingness to pay the price for reform despite the hundreds of arrested members and an aggressive smear campaign. The pressure card is now void, and the regime's political calculations will have to be revisited, which has meant the court ruling has also had to be postponed."

However, restricting the Brotherhood's capabilities to contest the forthcoming municipal elections might also be the reason for a prolonged trial.

"What the regime is after," notes Elshoubaki "is to keep the Brotherhood on the defensive, while curbing the group's potential to branch out into the political arena."