Full steam ahead

Washington's deployment of its infamous warship to Lebanon threw the country into further confusion this week, Lucy Fielder reports

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Washington dispatched the USS Cole destroyer to Lebanon's shores late last week, a gesture that intensified fears of a coming war and deepened already sharp divisions between the US- supported government and the opposition led by Hizbullah.

US officials ironically said the move was aimed at regional stability, though it is clear to both sides of the political divide in Lebanon that the very opposite could well be the outcome. Many saw the deployment as a way to step up pressure on Syria, which the US and the Lebanese government blame for a political deadlock and three-month-old presidential vacuum, and force a resolution to Lebanon's political crisis that would favour its allies.

The opposition's most powerful component, Iranian and Syrian-backed Hizbullah, said the decision to send the warship threatened stability in Lebanon and the region and highlighted US policy failures. Three weeks after vowing retaliation against Israel for the assassination of its military commander Imad Mughniyah, Hizbullah also promised not to be deterred by the US action.

Whether the government knew of its ally's move was a question subject to intense speculation this week. "We did not ask anyone to send warships," Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora said, adding that the ships would not be in Lebanese waters. But, asked whether it was true that there was no coordination between the two sides, White House national security spokesman Gordon Johndroe responded with what appeared to be a rebuttal. "No, I would say we have regular consultations with Prime Minister Al-Siniora and his government, as well as our allies, both in the immediate region, as well as in Europe, on the situation in Lebanon," he told a White House press briefing.

"I think it's a wasted, misguided gesture that nobody takes seriously as a military threat," said security analyst Timur Goksel, a former spokesman for the UNIFIL force in South Lebanon, who now lectures at the American University of Beirut. The only practical purpose of deploying the warship would be in case of an evacuation of US citizens from Lebanon, he said. "I see the US as a political force in Lebanon, not a combat force." Saudi Arabia last week urged its citizens to leave Lebanon, a step taken by many as a sign Lebanon was descending into war. The Arab state is a main backer of the government and is seen as playing a leading role in Lebanon.

The pro-opposition Al-Akhbar newspaper wrote that the United States sought a repeat of 1982, a reference to US involvement in Lebanon at the height of the civil war. The paper pointed out the irony of the deployment two weeks after the assassination of Mughniyah, whom the US accused of attacking its embassy and marine barracks in Beirut and thus forcing the US withdrawal. "This step comes at a time when clouds of war are looming over the region coming from the Israeli capital Tel Aviv, which is anxious for a new round with Hizbullah to restore some of the dignity that it lost in the previous rounds in the Lebanese south," the paper said.

Goksel played down the growing talk of war. "I don't subscribe to that civil war -- internal war -- regional war theory," Goksel said. "Wars don't happen that quickly." Despite Mughniyah's killing and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah's statement of willingness to engage in "open war" if that was what Israel wanted, Goksel did not see the time as ripe yet for another war between Israel and Hizbullah.

Al-Akhbar said the Cole deployment also coincided with "Arab incitement" against Syria, a reference to controversy surrounding the coming Arab summit, which is scheduled to be held in Damascus at the end of the month. Saudi Arabia has reportedly threatened not to attend the summit if a Lebanese president is not elected first, and both Riyadh and Cairo have blamed Syria for Lebanon's deadlock.

It is not clear whether Syria would invite Al-Siniora, whose cabinet has acquired presidential prerogatives during the vacuum, in the absence of a president. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, head of the opposition Shia Amal Party, said in an interview last week that he would continue to view Al-Siniora's cabinet as illegal even if Al-Siniora attended. His side has disputed the cabinet's legitimacy since six ministers went into opposition in November 2006. "All the Arab brothers should attend the summit despite their disagreements," Berri told his party's NBN television. "I am not against inviting Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora to the summit, but I guess he will not attend."

Goksel was among many who believed the dispatch of the Cole was aimed first and foremost at pressuring Syria. "I think it's aimed at Syria, though why they decided to pressure Lebanon rather than sending the ship to the Syrian coast I don't know," he said.

MPs from the 14 March ruling anti-Syrian movement said Syria had provoked the battleship's deployment by meddling in Lebanese affairs. Hawkish Christian Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said the Lebanese should "thank" the Americans for "restoring some balance". But some supporters of the movement privately chafed at the move, which fuels opposition theories about heavy US involvement in Lebanon and accusations that the real decision-makers are in Washington.

Goksel said the deployment of the Cole was a blow to the government. "It puts the government in a very difficult position and has certainly provided strong ammunition for its opponents, no doubt about it," he said.

The opposition, which also includes popular Christian leader Michel Aoun, has long accused the United States of hegemonic plans for Lebanon and the region, a charge that the deployment of the destroyer did little to weaken. Since former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri's assassination three years ago, the country has split between those who blame Syria for Lebanon's political problems and a string of assassinations, and those who fear the US and Europe have harboured plans for greater involvement in Lebanon since Damascus pulled out its troops in 2005.

A parliamentary session to elect a president was delayed for the 15th time last week, until 11 March. Both sides have agreed on army commander Michel Suleiman as a consensus candidate, but remain locked in a dispute about power-sharing in any cabinet.