Beyond Damascus

Will Arabs wake up to the solidarity alarm bell that rang in Damascus? Dina Ezzat argues that they may well select snooze

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LAND DAY COMMEMORATED AS US STEPS UP PEACE MEDIATION: Palestinian protesters in Nablus confronting Israeli troops during a protest to mark Land Day on 30 March (when in 1976 residents of Sakhnin protested against Israeli land seizure policy, and six Palestinians were killed by Israeli forces); while (far right) a US handout picture shows Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert meeting US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in Jerusalem

"This summit convened because it had to. The annual convocation of the summit is a firm and irreversible commitment, come what may," Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa told the top Arab congregation in Damascus earlier this week.

Despite the deliberate absence of many traditionally influential Arab heads of state, including President Hosni Mubarak and Saudi King Abdullah, who delegated a minister of state and ambassador respectively to head their countries' delegations, the Arab summit convened in accordance with rotation order in the Syrian capital.

"In fact, the summit convened with the support of President Mubarak and King Abdullah who chose to reduce the level of representation of Egypt and Saudi Arabia rather than boycotting the meeting altogether, because this would have been a major affront to Syria," commented one Arab League official on condition of anonymity. Syria is now the chair of the Arab summit for the next 12 months. But was the convocation of the Arab summit in and by itself an objective?

For some Arab capitals, the answer is a plain "Yes". "The Syrians were due to have the summit [in accordance with alphabetical rotation]. We did not want to obstruct it despite our anger at their negative interference in Lebanese affairs and their destructive alliance with Iran," said one Mashreq Arab foreign minister who asked for his name to be withheld.

For others, however, the Damascus summit was more than just another meeting. "The Syrian presidency of the summit could actually encourage Syria to take the sort of constructive steps required to mend fences with Saudi Arabia and Egypt," commented one Maghreb foreign minister on condition of anonymity.

Judging by the resolutions and declarations of the Arab summit, Arabs are not yet ready to make serious decisions. The tide of Arab reconciliation is much slower than that of Arab divisions.

Arab diplomats acknowledge that the greatest sticking point in Arab relations today -- the ultimate, even if reluctant, acceptance or alternatively defiance of US scenarios for the Middle East -- was evaded in Damascus. The question is whether or not there is a window for this and other dividing issues to be discussed after Damascus. So far this seems unlikely.

The day after the Arab summit, Algerian President Abdul-Aziz Boutaflika arrived in Cairo for a tête-à-tête with President Mubarak. Boutaflika, informed sources affirm, promised the Damascus summit to test the waters for reconciliation in Cairo. However, the Algerian president's loose proposal for a limited Arab summit that could bring together the heads of state of Syria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia -- among others -- was not embraced.

Cairo's reticence over such a meeting is that it could only offer a cosmetic reconciliation. The next few months, Egyptian and Syrian diplomats estimate, are crucial in regard to the differences between these two countries, be they over Lebanon or Palestine. The Syrians, Cairo complains, continue to block the election of a Lebanese president pending the gain by the pro-Syrian Lebanese opposition of veto power over the decisions of the anti-Syria majority government. "We were not born yesterday. We know exactly how things are run in Lebanon and who is obstructing reconciliation," Egyptian presidential spokesman Suleiman Awad said Wednesday.

Damascus for its part is concerned that Egypt will continue to refrain from using its political influence to confront what is perceived by Syria as increasing US hegemony. "We don't want a fight with the US, but we expect all Arabs to be in one camp when it comes to defending Arab rights," said Faisal Al-Mekdad, deputy Syrian foreign minister Monday. Particularly worrying for the Syrians, they say, are "unacceptable concessions" made by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in his talks with Israel backed with Egyptian consent.

"Before, during and after the Damascus summit, Egypt and Syria -- and for that matter Syria and Saudi Arabia -- have been determined not to move from the state of separation de corps to divorce," commented one Cairo-based Arab diplomat. "This is the maximum we should expect in the near future -- at least until the end of the term of the current US administration that has included divisions in Arab relations as a top regional priority," he added.

On Wednesday, in Cairo, President Mubarak hosted Palestinian President Abbas and Jordanian King Abdullah II to discuss ideas for final status talks between the Palestinians and Israelis with a special focus on Egyptian efforts to strike a truce between Palestinian political factions and Israel, a prospect more promising, according to statements made by Awad Wednesday, than diplomatic attempts to engender Palestinian reconciliation. This is not exactly what Syria would have hoped to hear .

With the advance of time, which is likely to reveal failure in securing sufficient progress in Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, or to produce Lebanese reconciliation, inter-Arab polarisation is likely to peak. A set of proposed Arab meetings scheduled for June to discuss the fate of Arab strategy regarding the Arab-Israeli conflict, along with developments in Lebanon, may be a venue for this polarisation to become fully public.

In the analysis of some Arab diplomats, this polarisation is centred on disagreement over the political identity and choices of the region. "Today, I am afraid we are no longer talking about leading Arab countries. We are just talking about conflicting Arab countries. And this is a disadvantage not just to [those] who used to lead, but also to the entire Arab nation because it is the lack of firm leadership that gives room for many divisions," commented one Arab official.

He added, "it is very telling that it is Qatar [rather than any of the traditional Arab leadership capitals] who is going to play the role of acting host and chair for the next Arab summit, skipped by both the due candidates Somalia and Iraq for obvious logistic and security reasons."