Play it low key

Dina Ezzat reports on the agenda of a limited Arab-American summit in the works

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US President George W Bush is scheduled in the region in the second half of May. Bush's tentative Middle East itinerary includes a start in Western Jerusalem for a two-week delayed celebration of the establishment of Israel, overlooking the twin anniversary of the Palestinian Nakba (the creation of Israel) and its subsequent suffering of shutat (Palestinian diaspora), occupation and much misery.

The second leg of Bush's trip should be in Saudi Arabia where he will discuss with Saudi King Abdullah a range of security and economy issues. The US military presence and other relevant security arrangements in the Gulf and oil production by the kingdom are set to top the agenda.

Then, in Sharm El-Sheikh, Bush is expected to arrive for a 16-hour visit where he will hold a one-on-one with President Hosni Mubarak on a range of bilateral issues especially the fate of US economic assistance to Egypt and its link to political reforms in the country. The course of these talks will decide whether it would be the last summit for these Egyptian and US presidents or whether it will be followed by another in the US during the summer, if President Mubarak decides to accept an invitation to end a five-year boycott of visits to Cairo's closest Western ally.

Later in the visit, Bush and Mubarak will receive King Abdullah of Jordan and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. The meeting should focus on the future of Palestinian-Israeli peace making and the impact thereof on overall regional stability.

According to Egyptian and American sources the chances of an Arab-Israeli peace meeting in the Red Sea resort in May are almost excluded.

It was originally Cairo that proposed to host a US-sponsored Arab-Israeli meeting in Sharm El-Sheikh in order to extract a commitment from Washington to push the stalled Palestinian-Israeli negotiations process. However, consultations conducted by Egyptian diplomacy tend to exclude this meeting for two reasons: that a serious political Palestinian-Israeli deal is unlikely to be produced from the meeting, and the reluctance of the White House to get its president to offer a firm US commitment on the parameters of any eventual Palestinian-Israeli agreement.

Cairo and Amman were given a clearly pessimistic account from Abbas over the lack of progress either in his talks with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert or in the parallel and more detailed talks that Palestinian negotiator Ahmed Qurei is having with Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. No breakthrough seems likely, Egyptian and other Arab sources suggest.

Cairo, its officials say, is not very forthcoming about hosting an unproductive meeting for the Israeli prime minister against the backdrop of the anniversary of the Nakba. "Not that Olmert is particularly keen on coming to a meeting where he would be ultimately asked to make a public peace commitment," said one source.

This week, presidential spokesman Suleiman Awwad said Egypt would find it meaningless to host an Arab-Israeli meeting in the presence of the US president if no progress could be secured on the Palestinian-Israeli front. "It would be pointless," Awwad said.

Awwad added that what Egypt was hoping to see is what President Bush promised to get before he exits the White House: a peace deal between Palestinians and Israelis.

The presidential spokesman was not overly forthcoming in lending Egypt's support to potential alternatives should a full peace agreement prove firmly impossible. A declaration of principles or a shelf agreement were both qualified by Awwad as below expectations. Awwad, however, would not completely rule out that Cairo would support Abbas if he chose to pursue either options should he find it unlikely to get Bush to offer more before the end of his term in the White House.

Egyptian officials acknowledge that Abbas invested all his political credentials in the negotiating process and that his political credibility is being seriously challenged, especially by his major rivals in Hamas, for failing to deliver, and they say that he is entitled to gain something. Ultimately, they state, Egypt does not decide on behalf of the Palestinian leadership.

"However, for us to give our support we have to avoid being blamed for making any serious political compromises that would be publicly rejected in Palestine, Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world," one source said on condition of anonymity. According to the same source, recent intensive Egyptian-Saudi consultations concluded that leading Arab countries cannot lend support to a deal that does not offer "a reasonable" settlement for the fate of Jerusalem. By the account of all sources, this seems highly unlikely.

Several sources suggested that Palestinian and Israeli negotiators have not started "serious drafting of any papers". The American administration, the same sources added, has so far been reluctant to offer a written document for the approval of both the Palestinian and Israeli sides.

In Washington today for a series of meetings with senior US officials, Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit will try to pursue Washington's commitment to upgrade its involvement in advancing Palestinian-Israeli negotiations to a drafting phase.

Meanwhile, Egyptian officials are also pessimistic about the chance of the visiting US president, balancing his visit to celebrate 60 years of Israel with a strong commitment to deliver Palestinian statehood. The message put across to Arab allies by Washington is that in a presidential election year, Bush is not in a position to make any statement that might be taken negatively by the Israeli lobby.

As it is, the meeting that President Mubarak is likely to host on the third week of May for Bush along with the Palestinian president and Jordanian monarch, will primarily offer an opportunity for Abbas to provide Bush with his own assessment of the progress -- or rather the lack thereof -- of negotiations with Israel and to make a list of political demands supported by Cairo and Amman. Abbas, sources suggest, is set to request more US involvement, more economic and security facilities for Ramallah, and a hold to any Israeli plans for a massive invasion of Gaza.

Bush is not scheduled to visit Ramallah to avoid the anniversary of the Nakba.

Egyptian officials acknowledge that ultimately the Sharm El-Sheikh Arab-American meeting may not produce much. Which is why they wish to play it low key.