Window closing fast

Hesham Youssef* examines the cost the region would bear if efforts to settle the Arab-Israeli conflict fail

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The Arab world has worked exceedingly hard to orchestrate the launch of a process of serious Palestinian-Israeli negotiations with direct international, especially American, involvement in the hope that six decades after the Nakba, the region would move beyond the current phase of conflict into a phase of stability and eventual prosperity.

It was with this hope in mind, and despite legitimate concerns, that the Arab world made the difficult and courageous decision to go to the Annapolis peace conference last November amid wide scepticism and apprehension across Arab public opinion.

There are many reasons for this critical view. People in the Arab world are doubtful that the Israeli establishment has taken the strategic decision to end the Arab-Israeli conflict once and for all. They say that the Arab side has presented a number of peace initiatives throughout the years and wonder why Israel never proposed a peace initiative of its own.

They also keep asking, "Why should we continue to have the Arab peace initiative on the table when it is evident that Israel has not responded positively to this initiative since formulated in 2002?"

I think that people are justified in having these doubts.

When people in the Arab world hear that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said before a Knesset committee that the Israelis should not worry because achieving peace will take 20-30 years; when they hear Haggai Alon, a senior advisor to the former Israeli minister of defence, saying that the army ignores Israeli Supreme Court rulings about the path that the wall should follow and that they set a route that will not enable the establishment of a Palestinian state; when they hear Moshe Yaalon, former Israeli army chief of staff, saying that the objective of the occupation is "to sear deep into the consciousness of Palestinians that they are a defeated people"; when people in the Arab world hear all that and more, they have every right to be sceptical.

Now this sceptical public is asking Arab officials what they were able to accomplish six months after Annapolis, particularly that the agreed timeframe was to reach an agreement between the Palestinians and Israelis before the end of the current US administration. Instead of seeing progress, they witness what they consider unacceptable Israeli practices continuing unabated, including its settlement policy, the confiscation of Palestinian land, military attacks, the siege on Gaza and more.

Adding to all these difficulties, people in the region and beyond are also following an Arab-Israeli war of narratives. The Arab world firmly believes that this conflict is about occupation of Arab land in Palestine, Syria and Lebanon; that it is a conflict about Palestinian rights and abiding by international law. Israel wants people to believe that this conflict is not about territory, and nor is it about the rights of the Palestinian people, but rather about a clash of values.

The Arab world also believes that many Israeli practices constitute collective punishment and at times even war crimes, while Israel is arguing that these practices constitute self-defence. Israel also argues that this is a conflict between moderate and extremist states. There are moderates and extremists -- no one would disagree with the fact that extremism is rising in our region. But it exists with varying degrees within all the parties involved in the conflict, including in Israel.

At the same time, the moderation of millions in the Arab world is reaching its limit and Arab officials are unable to prove to their public that moderation pays. If progress towards peace cannot be achieved in the near future, the peace process will be facing the real possibility of yet another devastating failure. The price of failure will be extremely high, not only for people in the Middle East but also for the international community as a whole. Five points have to be mentioned in this regard.

First, while there are many who are working on achieving peace in the Middle East, there are also those who are thinking of, and even preparing for, war. A number of high officials, including from the US, indicate that they expect a hot summer in the Middle East.

Still, the Arab world is working hard for peace to prevail. But unfortunately our region is on a war footing as much as it is on a peace footing. Failure would strengthen those beating the drums of war in the region and beyond.

Second, failure will also strengthen extremists on all sides and provide them with a golden opportunity to dictate the future agenda of the region. A number of today's extremist groups are no longer the spoilers that the region was accustomed to in the past -- capable of hindering but not blocking or derailing efforts to achieve peace. Today's groups can be much more disruptive and also destructive.

The role of the international community is to work on bringing back people from a place where they feel that violence is the only means to influence the future course of events by proving to them that moderation pays.

Third, failure would also lead to an arms race and further tension and instability in the region, including the possibility of strengthened Al-Qaeda-type activities in our region and beyond.

Fourth, the Middle East has more than its share of conflicts and a number of these problems are interrelated. Failure would lead to further complications as the linkages between these conflicts may be strengthened making an already complicated situation even more complex.

Fifth and finally, and perhaps most importantly, failure would also result in strengthening voices that are becoming doubtful about the viability of the two-state solution.

Even Prime Minister Olmert said that if the Palestinian question were not resolved, Israel would be facing an apartheid-type battle with the international community. This is why what US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said about failure not being an option is important. It will be crucial for the US to continue its efforts in a more determined manner for progress to materialise; otherwise the whole world will pay the price of failure.

The Arab world will continue to do its utmost to achieve a fair and just peace on all tracks. But this will never be accomplished without an Israeli partner as keen as we in the Arab world are to achieve peace.

* The writer is chief of staff of the cabinet of the Arab League secretary-general.