Conventional wisdom

By Salama A Salama

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Amid signs that the West is taking a new approach to the Middle East, the US is thinking of turning a new page in its relations with Iran. It is also about to launch an "interests" section in Tehran for the first time since the 1979 Revolution. And yet conventional Arab capitals continue to plod down the same road, still blaming Syria for everything that went wrong in Lebanon, including the ascendance of Hizbullah. They are still worried that Iran wants to destabilise and dominate the region with its Persian ambitions -- a term that is becoming popular in Egyptian media. Some writers are gravely worried about a replay of Sunni-Shia rivalries of old.

In their impaired vision, conventional Arab regimes have fallen victim to the propaganda campaign the US and the West waged against Syria and Iran following the occupation of Iraq, a campaign that once aimed to redraw the map of the region and dispose of any regimes that resist US hegemony.

Europe, especially France and Germany, initially resisted the US war in Iraq. But later on a new generation of European leaders came to side with the US administration. The US and France adopted hostile views towards Syria, and Germany followed suit following the assassination of Rafik Al-Hariri. The US and Europe did everything they could to strangle Hizbullah and Palestinian resistance groups, especially Hamas. And as Iran's nuclear programmes were being trumpeted as a threat to world peace, Israel struck Lebanon in a disastrous offensive and then sent its planes to bombard what was alleged to be a Syrian nuclear site.

But the region proved a harder nut to crack than many had expected. Iraq turned into a quagmire for the Americans. Syria refused to back down. Hizbullah retained its fighting capabilities. And a mighty blockade failed to bring Gaza and Hamas to their knees. In the end, those who challenged US policies proved right after all. Syrian- Israeli contacts, now being coordinated by Turkey, were not exactly something the Americans would have advised. And once the US stopped interfering in Lebanon, the country managed, with Qatar's help, to get a new president.

Now Sarkozy's France is making overtures to the Syrians, and Bashar Al-Assad has been invited to attend a Mediterranean summit in Paris. Germany, too, is trying to mend fences with the Syrians. So it appears Syria is about to regain its good name without having to ditch Iran or water down its policies.

How are conventional Arab states feeling about that? One wonders. Can they ever see beyond the small squabbles that seem to be the only thing that matters to them? Most likely they are still stuck on their desire to break the Syrian-Iranian alliance. Some fear that the Iranians might use that alliance to bring the region under their control. Others dread the prospect that Washington and Tehran would strike a deal behind their back.

Right now, Iran and the West are engaged in high- level diplomacy to resolve their differences. Western countries have presented new ideas to resolve the question of Iranian nuclear activities. And implicitly, at least, they recognise Iran as a major player in the region. Some symbolic sanctions have been put in place, including measures against one Iranian bank. And some muscle flexing was performed as usual by the Israelis. And yet Washington seems to be leaning towards rapprochement with Tehran.

Arab League Chief Amr Moussa urged Arab-Iranian dialogue to patch things up. Such dialogue could be timely. Not only would it help avoid a destructive conflict, but it would also keep Iran from making a unilateral deal with the West, a deal that leaves us Arabs out in the cold. But Arab conventional regimes don't seem to be listening. As usual, they are scared of trying their hand at anything new.