Soapbox:

Bush mulls Iran

By El-Sayed Eleiwa

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The dominant view among analysts is that the US won't strike at Iran because of the unspeakable horrors that such a move could unleash. Many are now convinced that the US is not in a position to risk igniting the whole region -- not with thousands of its troops deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan. But I see a chance for a US-orchestrated pinpoint attack against Iranian nuclear facilities.

For sometime now, US officials have been trying to give an impression of progress on the Iraq front. They have also been trying to calm things down in Palestine. To me, this seems as part of preparations for a possible offensive against Iran. Maybe it won't be the big offensive many have feared, and maybe it won't be carried out by the Americans. Should the Americans help Israel launch an attack against Iran, they would have the alibi they need. Washington can say that it warned the Iranians repeatedly, but then couldn't stop the Israelis from acting in self-defence.

The US is eager for a showdown with Iran, but it may be still willing to use a little subterfuge. White House officials may not want a foreign policy fiasco in the closing months of the Bush era, but they could be hoping to get the job done with the least possible publicity. Bush may not want to leave office before teaching the Iranians a lesson. He once said that his policy was inspired by God. Until he's out of office, we must remain prepared for the worst.

This week's Soapbox speaker is a professor of political science at Helwan University.