Last-minute moves

Is the Bush administration reconsidering its veto on Hamas? From besieged Gaza, Saleh Al-Naami seeks answers

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Ahmed Youssef, senior political advisor to Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, little imagined the letter he sent to the Middle East Quartet (the US, UN, EU and Russia) shortly before its last meeting two week ago would lead to the first indirect contact between the US and Hamas. But there it was: a message from US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to Hamas Political Bureau Chief Khaled Meshaal sent via the US Embassy in Damascus and handed to the recipient by a visiting Arab foreign minister. In the letter Rice thanks Hamas for the role it has played in preserving calm.

Youssef regularly writes to the Quartet in advance of its meetings and has never before elicited a response. So was it the substance of the last letter that sparked Rice's reply? In it Youssef argued that the Quartet had no grounds to sustain its hostile stance towards Hamas given the considerable evidence, which he cited, of Hamas's commitment to meet its obligations under the Cairo-brokered agreement for maintaining calm.

Whatever prompted the Rice letter, Youssef is careful to stress that it does not herald a massive change in the current relationship between Hamas and the US. But, he added in an interview with Al-Ahram Weekly, "it certainly reflects the US administration's sense that the justifications upon which it has long grounded its antagonism towards Hamas and the Palestinian resistance are crumbling". Although Youssef holds little hope that the Bush administration will publicly alter its stance towards Hamas during its final days, he does believe the Rice letter is a sign of a breach in areas he had felt were unbreachable.

Youssef's letters to the Quartet are generally conveyed via European diplomats, though this is not the only channel. A high-profile source in the Haniyeh government says that communications have been taking place for more than a year between his government and the office of Tony Blair, the Quartet's envoy. The source, who requested anonymity, revealed the director of Blair's office has been in regular contact with representatives of the Haniyeh government in order to exchange opinions and acquire a clearer perception of the policy orientations of both the government and the Hamas movement. Intensive communications between the Haniyeh government and Blair's office continued over the visit Blair was supposed to make to Gaza three months ago and which was cancelled at the last minute due to pressure from the Israelis. He added that although "sensitivities" on the part of the Salam Fayyad government in Ramallah, Israel and the US administration have so far prevented a Blair visit to Gaza he would not be surprised if one took place soon. On relations between Hamas and the US, the source mentioned that figures close to Hamas have recently opened channels of communication with figures within the Republican and Democratic parties in the US but refused to reveal any details.

Mahmoud Al-Zahar, a senior Hamas figure currently in Cairo having just finished a round of talks with Egyptian officials, confirmed that Hamas had received a letter from Rice. Speaking to the Weekly by phone Al-Zahar cautioned "this letter cannot be regarded as a turning point in relations between the US administration and Hamas".

In the heat of the American electoral campaigns, he said, Hamas does not expect the Bush administration to undertake any steps that might jeopardise Republican John McCain's chances of a victory. Nor does he hold out much hope for a significant change in attitude from either presidential candidate, pointing out that they had competed with one another over who was most committed to "fighting" Hamas.

Al-Zahar does, however, believe that opportunities for opening communications with the rest of the world will improve. He bases his optimism on "growing signs that the US's star as the sole influential political pole in the world is waning". European governments that hold secret meetings with Hamas still refuse to make the contacts public for fear of the American reaction. It is a situation that is likely to change under any future US administration.

The American quagmires in Iraq and Afghanistan, together with the enormous costs of these campaigns, the victories of opponents to US policies on many fronts, the fall of America's allies in Palestine and Lebanon and Washington's failure to resolve its disputes with Iran and Venezuela are among the factors that will propel the US to become less domineering and more open to working with others. Al-Zahar feels that the recent crisis between Russia and Georgia, in particular, has reduced Washington's margin of manoeuvrability, to the detriment of US allies. He also revealed that a meeting had recently taken place between the Hamas delegation in Cairo and the Russian ambassador to Egypt. In the meeting, requested by the Russian ambassador, Hamas appealed to Russia to take a "moral stand" on the conflict with Israel as opposed to any position motivated by the bickering between Moscow and Washington. Al-Zahar also expects Arab countries allied with the US to exhibit more willingness to open up to Hamas as evidence of the "US collapse" continues to mount. He argues that the recent agreement between Hamas and Egyptian officials proves "the bets they [Washington, Israel and Fatah] made that Egypt and other Arab countries would build the guillotine for Hamas leaders have failed."

Walid Al-Mudallal, a professor of political science and well-known commentator, suggests that the letter from Rice to Hamas should be viewed as one of the "last-minute initiatives" that lame duck US administrations often take.

The Bush administration is no longer in a position to offer anything substantial to Hamas, says Al-Mudallal. "The current administration is too weak to do anything that might be construed as a provocation of Israel and the Jewish lobbies. Bush is too concerned about improving McCain's electoral chances to allow any sign of softness towards Hamas to threaten the Republicans' prospects of remaining in the White House."

Al-Mudallal does not rule out the possibility that the Rice letter was part of the Bush administration's current drive to "maintain calm on all fronts", pointing out that Washington is also encouraging Afghan President Hamid Karzai to enter into Saudi Arabian- brokered negotiations with the Taliban. Yet Al-Mudallal believes the Rice letter to Meshaal, which Washington clearly does not want publicised, is one more sign that the Americans are finally revising their positions in light of their failure in the so-called war against terrorism.

"It was the Bush administration that compelled European governments to declare Hamas a 'terrorist organisation' only to discover that it is impossible to chalk up points for itself through this mode of relationship with Hamas." (see p.9)