Bailing out of talks

---

Hamas could not have picked a worse time to pull out of the inter- Palestinian dialogue. It has presented Israel with an opportunity to forget its responsibilities towards the Palestinians and abandon its commitment to the creation of a Palestinian state. It is hard to know what is on Hamas's mind, though it seems unification of Palestinian ranks is anything but a top priority within the movement.

What makes the Hamas decision particularly galling is that it comes at a decisive moment in international and regional politics. A new American president is contemplating his options in the Middle East and the region has just hosted meetings of the Quartet, the international group that is trying to promote a peaceful solution. On 19 December the official six- month truce between Hamas and Israel officially ends. The term of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will then expire on 9 January, after which a constitutional vacuum is likely to emerge.

With Israel's elections slated for next February, Israeli political parties are trying to outmanoeuvre one another. Ehud Barak may seek to boost the flagging fortunes of the Labour Party by sending troops into Gaza in an attempt to free the captured soldier Gilad Shalit. Not to be outdone, Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu is talking tough, telling everyone that he is the only candidate who can take on the combined threat of Iran, Hamas and Hizbullah.

Meanwhile, extremist Israeli religious parties are likely to extract a high political price for participating in any coalition. This is why former Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert insists time is running out for a solution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict along the lines drawn at Annapolis.

Missing a chance for peace is not what worries Olmert most. He is far more concerned that the collapse of the two-state solution may make the world look more seriously at a bi-national state, one in which the Jews may end up being a minority.

Whenever they are in trouble the Israelis go back to their old tactics, formulating military adventures that might make them feel good. One thing their commanders are rumoured to be considering is a military offensive on Gaza aimed at liquidating Hamas leaders.

With Kadima losing momentum the possibility of a far-right coalition taking power in Israel is growing. Should this happen the chances for peace will evaporate and the Palestinians will have all the time in the world to squabble indefinitely.