Crystal-ball gazing

Obama's victory has seismic repercussions for upcoming Iranian presidential elections, predicts Mustafa El-Labbad*

---

The first part of Iran's bet that there will be changes in the unipolar global order was fulfilled with the victory of United States President-elect Barack Obama. As a defeat for racism, this victory was a step that revived hopes of hundred millions of people in and outside the US. Iran celebrated Obama's victory along with the rest of the world; however, the Iranian celebration is mainly marking the defeat of the Republican successor to President George Bush, John McCain. In other words, the defeat of the confrontational approach towards Iran.

Tehran is currently expecting fulfillment of the promise by the new Democratic administration in Washington to work on restoring its image in the region and worldwide. For this purpose, it has promised to initiate dialogue with several players in the world in general and the Middle East in particular. The Iranians hope that such dialogue will include a US/Iranian dialogue, lending Iran's regional role greater legitimacy based on the fact that Iran has the ability to obstruct Washington's policies in the region. Logically speaking, this will require the US to pay a price in return for Iran playing ball.

Based on Obama's recent statements, the second part of Iran's bet is less certain than it once was. Obama stressed on his first Iran-related statement that he "rejects a nuclear Iran". As soon as the media communicated this, Iranian parliament's speaker Ali Larijani was highly critical of the statement, describing it as "heading to the wrong direction". Iranian expectations came down to earth. The Iranian political elite are no longer talking about the good omen implied in the US president-elect's name which has a Persian meaning: (he is with us). Currently, Tehran, highly skilled in communicating political and regional messages, is preoccupied with drafting new messages to Washington stressing the importance of holding dialogue with Tehran, which is seen as the outstanding regional power capable of either facilitating or obstructing the resolution of regional problems. The media frenzy resulting from Obama's victory started to slow down; however, political calculations did not come to an end in Tehran. Tehran, which is anxiously seeking to sit down for negotiations with Washington, realises how farfetched this probably is under the current presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. True, Ahmadinejad, immediately upon hearing of Obama's victory, sent him a congratulatory message, the first positive message in a long time, considering his exchanges with President George Bush. Nevertheless, Ahmadinejad's fiery statements in general and those related to Israel in particular will make a potential meeting with Obama almost impossible.

Obama's victory actually placed Iranian President Ahmadinejad in hot water regardless of Tehran's bet on this victory. The reason is that dialogue and a calm climate is inconsistent with the Iranian president's statements offered to the region and the whole world since he came to office more than three years ago. It is more likely that the Iranian president preferred sparring with Bush. Such a foe and such a regional context were very convenient for the Iran's president confrontation with Bush. The new Democratic and liberal president-elect is expected to put pressure on the Iranian president who is already under pressure. The oil price decrease in the global markets imposed restrictions on the Ahmadinejad government's ability to satisfy local demand in accordance with his electoral slogan "distributing oil revenue to the people". Also he was forced to dismiss Interior Minister Ali Kordan for forging his doctoral degree. The Bush/Ahmadinejad duet is the primary loser of Obama's accession to the White House.

Speculation is that there will be a new Iranian president when elections are held who will be better placed to negotiate with Washington. According to this forecast, Ahmadinejad may not run for presidential elections next summer "for health reasons". Even without a new reformist president, it is difficult to conceive of real American-Iranian negotiations. It would require serious concessions from one side. Washington is already considering assigning American diplomats in its Interests Section with the Swiss Embassy in Tehran in a tit-for-tat with the Iranian Interests Section with the Pakistani Embassy in Washington.

Jockeying on both sides over the next year will be intended to set the stage for the Iranian presidential elections next summer. However, this does not imply that reformist candidate Mahdi Karrubi will certainly win the upcoming presidential elections, as reformists' role expired during Mohamed Khatemi's era. Whoever is the next Iranian president -- other names mentioned are Ali Larijani and Baqer Qalibaf -- will have his work cut out for him.

* The writer is director of the Eastern Centre for Regional and Strategic Studies, Cairo (ECRSS).