Premier sedition

The spat between the Somali president and his prime minister was an undignified complication to the Somali political conundrum that the country did not need, writes Gamal Nkrumah

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The ominous news is that the United Nations Security Council has authorised foreign powers such as the United States to assail Somali territory and airspace in pursuit of pirates.

The good news is that, after much regional and international brinkmanship, agreement has arrived on the outlines of a political settlement between the humbled Somali President Abdallah Youssef and his triumphant Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein. The tug of war between the two men is not yet over, though.

The Somali political establishment is weakened and divided and this week's sacking by Somali President Youssef of his Prime Minister Hussein who accused the president of scuttling the Somali reconciliation process. The Somali president claimed that his prime minister failed to instil security in the country and was unable to perform his duties. But deeper ideological divisions lay beneath the surface.

The prime minister was always more willing to concede political concessions to the Islamist Alliance for the Re- Liberation of Somalia (ARS), the country's most influential political group. The president was more adamant in his opposition to the ARS.

The row does little to sway those Somali politicians uncommitted to peace and the reconciliation process.

Big lessons have to be learnt from the scale of the Somali calamity. After serious deliberations, the Somali parliament voted on Monday to back the premier, also popularly called Nur Adde, and declared the president's decision "illegitimate".

Baidoa, the seat of the Somali parliament, was abuzz with activity. Of the 170 parliamentarians based in Baidoa, no less than 143 MPs sided with the Somali premier declaring his government legitimate. A paltry seven MPs abstained from voting, while 20 rejected the motion.

A dejected Youssef conceded that he would comply with any decision passed by parliament. Yet on Tuesday he appointed Mohamed Mahmoud Guled as his new premier. "As I had promised to appoint a Prime Minister within three days I have nominated Guled," Youssef told a local Somali radio station.

Youssef in the first place charged his premier with, among other things, failing to create a climate of peace and political stability. The rift between the president and his premier had weakened the TFG and made sure that the Islamist adversaries of the Somali government are well placed to take advantage of whatever prevailing situation whenever it comes.

"When it comes to the dismissal of the prime minister, he has no power. He should inform and ask the parliament to take action," Hussein warned. He understands that he is now more powerful than ever. Hussein was appointed prime minister in November to replace Ali Mohamed Gedi who had refused to negotiate with Islamists. Hussein said that his dismissal "undermined the legitimacy of parliament".

Indeed, the Somali parliamentary vote raised several pertinent questions. Once an outsider's astonishment at the vote subsides, it becomes evident that the majority of Somali parliamentarians are closet Islamists or sympathisers of the cause of the militant Islamists. The Somali president cannot pretend that he is not embarrassed by the outcome of the vote.

His Ethiopian benefactors did not come to his rescue. Even so, Addis Ababa is expected to act but it is clear that it does not want to be painted as profligate in the lead-up to next year's Somali presidential elections.

The Somali president needs to deal with this crisis forthrightly, first and foremost by being frank and open about what passed between his supporters and those of the prime minister's. Nonetheless, this is not the first scandal of his administration. The president must also realise that he has not emerged from this slime untainted. His detractors will undoubtedly find more ways to circumvent what little remains of his powers.

The Somali president should have known what was going on. However, the president must never lose sight of the fact that his prime minister was once a close political ally. The two fell out over their differing stance vis-à-vis the so-called moderate Islamists with whom the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was negotiating a peace deal. The prime minister is obviously more popular with the residents of the Somali capital Mogadishu, the majority of whom are Islamists sympathisers.

Moreover, the Somali president is not known for keeping his thoughts to himself. Yet this latest development points up two elements sorely needed if peace is to prevail in Somalia. The first is the establishment of a proper political framework. The second element is fairness.

Though expectations are running more powerfully than ever in Prime Minister Hussein's favour, arithmetically it remains a close race for power, prestige and political clout. The Somali president received a severe blow to his reputation when the head of the African Union Commission Jean Ping condemned the Somali premier's dismissal as an attempt to derail the United Nations-sponsored peace talks with Somali Islamists.

The polluted waters of Somali politics beggars belief. The whole Somali peace process is a sorry mess. It must be tried and modified if necessary. Since the toppling of the Siad Barre in 1991, Somalia has not had a truly functional government.

Do not blame President Youssef for fighting on, but likewise do not blame the wavering Somali parliamentarians for failing to bring the contest between the president and his prime minister to a close. They did what they could pointing out that the president was wrong to sack his premier.

A vindicated Hussein celebrated in typical Somali style. The clan leaders and tribal elders counselled prudence and restraint. But any initiative that seeks to break the deadlock between the two most powerful men in the TFG must note that they represent different political constituencies.

Somali politicians of whatever ideological hue know that the TFG was characterised by strained relations between president and premier. They must get serious about promoting stability, not conflict, in the country.

Hussein's revolt is the latest in a series of mishaps that have plagued Youssef's administration. And, it will not be the last.