Surviving difficulties

A tough year for both the NDP and the government of Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif. But it is unlikely to be terminal, predicts Gamal Essam El-Din

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'The opposition should know that this is not the time for exchanging accusations. We are in one boat, warding off the proponents of creative chaos and sedition.' -- NDP Secretary-General Safwat El-Sherif during the party's annual conference

Most observers agree 2008 was a difficult year for the government of Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif and the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) as both faced a bundle of political, economic and social challenges.

The rise in global food prices placed a huge burden on the government purse in terms of providing basic food subsidies. It also meant embarrassing times for the NDP which was forced to respond to opposition attacks that its market-oriented policies had dragged more than 41 per cent of Egyptians below the poverty line and widened the gap between the rich and poor.

There were attempts to put a gloss on the year's wave of protests. Alieddin Hilal, chairman of the NDP's Media Committee, said in a press interview that the flurry of protests in 2008 reflected democratic development. "It demonstrated that the Egyptian political system is opening up and that citizens could protest and demonstrate without fear of punishment or police retaliation," said Hilal.

Abdel-Moneim Said, director of Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS), told Al-Ahram Weekly the Arab Strategic Report published recently by the centre was correct to cast the issue of street protests as the most prominent feature of the 2008 political scene. "But," says Said, "the report was also keen to emphasise that the government and the ruling NDP were able, by the end of 2008, to contain the wave of social and labour protests."

The government, he continued, successively instigated a new, efficient rationing card system to provide poor and limited-income citizens with their basic needs of subsidised food and bread, thus ending scenes of long lines of citizens quarreling before bakeries.

On the political front, the government fought battles against different political forces, foremost among them the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood group. In the People's Assembly, the government and the ruling NDP successfully extended the emergency law for another two years in the face of opposition accusations that the NDP was reneging on its 2005 promise to replace the state of emergency with a Western-style anti-terror law.

In the People's Assembly and Shura Council the ruling NDP faced embarrassment when four of its prominent members appeared in court on charges that ranged from involvement in corruption and manslaughter to incitement to murder. NDP and Shura Council member Hisham Talaat Mustafa, board chairman of the largest private sector construction company in Egypt, was at the centre of the most scandalous of the cases, accused of commissioning Mohsen El-Sukkari, a private security officer, to murder Lebanese pop singer Suzanne Tamim in Dubai. The high-profile case led several senior NDP officials to defend their party in the face of attacks.

The government found itself facing a flurry of accusations of negligence and corruption. The accusations came on the heels of fires which gutted the Shura Council and National Theatre, and following a landslide in the East Cairo district of Dweiqa that left 105 residents dead. The latter inevitably led to charges that the government of Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif works to benefit the rich at the expense of the poor. Said, however, argues that Nazif has been remarkably successful in lifting many Egyptians out of extreme poverty.

"The government of Nazif has achieved high levels of economic growth in recent years and has managed to survive the global crisis of food prices," he says.

In recent weeks cabinet ministers and NDP officials have leaked a host of stories trailing future economic and political reforms to the press. They include new draft laws for municipal councils and professional syndicates and measures to increase the number of parliamentary seats allocated to women.

On the economic front Gamal Mubarak who heads the NDP's Policies Committee, led by Gamal Mubarak, took commentators by surprise when he announced a giveaway of shares in government- owned companies. The scheme, which aims to speed up the privatisation process, involves stakes in 151 public sector companies being distributed among 41 million Egyptians over 21 years old. Most opposition parties plan to attack the new programme when it comes up for discussion in the People's Assembly in its current session.

The opposition is far from confident that the government will be able to withstand the global credit crisis. The leftist Tagammu Party predicts a growing crisis in the wake of reduced revenues from the Suez Canal and tourism which will limit the ability to protect poor citizens.

Hilal begs to differ. The government, he believes, is well-placed to contain any public anger that might spill over into the streets in 2009.

"I think the government will survive this crisis. Recent falls in world oil prices, and food crops, particularly wheat, will relieve the state budget of a great financial burden," argues Said.