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Tough year

By Salama A Salama

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The year ended with Tzipi Livni in Cairo making threats before unleashing hell on Gaza. If anything, this is a good indication of what to expect in 2009. Banking on the mistrust between Hamas and some Arabs, Israel is acting as if its siege on Gaza and the carnage it is wreaking on its inhabitants are in the best interest of all Arabs.

In the hope of winning the elections, Livni is acting more extreme than the Netanyahu-led Likud. But she's not edging closer to electoral victory. And whether she or Netanyahu end up winning, there is no glimmer of peace on the horizon.

The EU doesn't seem particularly excited about the peace proposals its foreign ministers discussed recently in Brussels. And the Obama administration will take its own sweet time before addressing the thorny issues of the Middle East.

Any lingering hope of Annapolis having an impact or the Quartet taking action will be swept away in 2009. With a world depression just starting, the worst is not here yet. If you ask me, the Obama administration is going to get too busy with the economy to bother with international political affairs.

Although everyone knows that they lost billions in US and European money markets, Arab countries have so far pretended that they withstood the economic crisis. But the current dilemma cannot be brushed off for long. With oil prices plummeting, and every industrial nation taking measures to reduce its reliance on oil, the future of oil producers is less than rosy. Already, research centres and industrial institutions are putting their heads together, making hybrid cars and solar this and that.

The toll the economic crisis is taking is more extensive than anyone had expected. As working hours and wages are cut and employment keeps on soaring in the industrial world, Arab countries, Egypt included, are going to feel the pinch. There is talk already of capital flight and of decreased revenues from the Suez Canal, less tourism, weaker exports and smaller expatriate remittances. The political implications are yet to be felt.

The stability the Arab region is hoping for is but a mirage. The US says it will withdraw from Iraq, and has signed a security agreement to this effect. But soon you'll see that what the Americans mean is to reduce troops and pull them out of cities. At which time, Iraqi sects and parties will go into another bout of power struggle.

Obama may make good on his promise to start a strategic dialogue between Washington and Iran. In which case, the region may witness the start of a new chapter of relations between Iran and Arab countries. Ironically, the very countries that have been exaggerating the Iranian threat are likely to be the first ones to welcome Tehran into the regional fold.

What about Syria? Regardless of the ups and downs of indirect talks between Syria and Israel, little is likely to come out of the talks unless the Obama administration changes its mind about Syria. It would help, of course, if Syria and Lebanon stay on good terms with the help of France.

As for reform in the Arab world, it's going to be the same old story. No Arab regime is yet willing to introduce serious political reform. And the setback to democracy in Mauritania didn't exactly help. In Palestine, where legislative and presidential elections are supposed to take place in the first week of 2009, divisions and acrimonious bickering is more likely to endure. In Egypt, we'll spend another year tinkering with laws, but true democracy will have to wait.