Ethiopian exodus

Gamal Nkrumah notes that the exit of the Ethiopians from Somalia changes everything, and nothing, for the troubled Horn of Africa nation

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This week witnessed the exit of Ethiopian troops from Somalia, a historic event that promises to bring the curtain down on the Ethiopian occupation of the country. Although some details have yet to be worked out, the Ethiopians have bowed to popular Somali pressure for a troop withdrawal timetable. The Ethiopians, however, must make sure they will leave no personnel or permanent military bases in Somalia. The increasing popularity of the militant Islamist Shabab (Youth) Movement has helped concentrate the minds in Addis Ababa on withdrawal from Somalia.

Faced with a surge of Somali nationalism, the Ethiopians embarrassingly beat a hasty retreat. But if the Ethiopian military withdrawal from Somalia is to be a blueprint for Somali stability, and an event around which Somalia's bickering political factions coalesce then the Ethiopians must promise never to return.

Given Somalia's fragile state, it is far from clear what would happen next. A convergence of events over the past year has produced a considerable upsurge in the popularity of the Islamist groups in Somalia. The ouster of the president of the Transitional Federal Government Abdullah Youssef, backed by the Ethiopians, ushers in a new dawn for Somalia in particular and the Horn of Africa in general. Youssef has long been guilty of a fundamental inconstancy in policy. His Islamist opponents' moralistic fervour failed to falter even when the prickly subject of Western interference was broached. It is common knowledge that the Ethiopian forces were in Somalia fighting a proxy war on behalf of the United States.

Previous calls for an Ethiopian troop withdrawal have been swatted away by sympathetic Somali politicians who wanted to ensure a greater Western presence in the country as a counterbalance to the growing power and influence of the militant Islamists. There were scenes of unrepressed jubilation by the residents of the Somali capital Mogadishu as they watched the Ethiopian troops leave the city. The Somali Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein in what was obviously a reconciliatory gesture to woo the Islamists urged peace. "The rebels had long called for the exit of the Ethiopians. Now that the Ethiopians are withdrawing their forces, we Somalis must become a peace- loving nation," Hussein noted. He suggested that Somalia must ditch the entire policy of the ex- president Youssef.

What he did not say was how he intended to deal with the Council of Islamic Courts (CICs) and the Shabab who are expected to fill the political vacuum in the aftermath of the Ethiopian exit. Somalia's neighbours are nervous about the strict promulgation and enforcement of Islamic Sharia laws by the CICs. Horn of Africa observers warn that it is a pity that the international community is dragging its feet over Somali national reconciliation. The United States-led International Contact Group (ICG) has been unable to resolve the Somali political impasse. So what are the big issues of our time as far as the Horn of Africa is concerned? The most important task is to turn Somalia into a viable state once again. It will need the stamp of the Somali fractious parliament, however, to institute a semblance of democracy.

The trust gap between the TFG and the militant Islamists in Somalia is fast widening, even with the Ethiopian withdrawal. What can be done to rebuild that trust? The Ethiopian withdrawal is the very first step towards that goal. Ordinary people, the public and government must be seen as working hand in hand for Somali social and economic upliftment.

Ex-president Youssef ignored the demands of the more religiously inclined of his compatriots to his peril. This was a foolish move that Hussein is determined to avoid at all costs.

It is in the best interests of the country if the professionals return to their homeland and technocrats are permitted to once again conduct the business of running the country in peace. The interests of Somalia will be best served when trust is rebuilt in the Somali political system.

The fact remains, however, that the odds are better with the militant Islamists in charge of the country. The pro-Western, anti-Islamist politicians in Somalia are also hog-wrestling mad about what has become their main concern -- the spread of Islamic fundamentalism in the country. The exit of the Ethiopians will simultaneously accentuate the political clout of the militant Islamists and curb the influence of the moderates. It takes some of the air out of the speculation about the political future of the country.

The Somali secularists are growing increasingly frustrated. Without the Ethiopian military presence it is difficult to see how they can be integrated into the security apparatus of the country. Indeed, with the Islamists in control the system seems to be cracking down on the secularists. This is an increasingly common pattern that augurs ill for the entire Horn of Africa, and not just Somalia.

Somali politicians are grappling with issues.

The pool contains more fish than at first anticipated.