Obama's Middle East calculations

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Evidently President Obama is convinced by the view of some research institutes and politicians that Iran is the shortcut to solving the most pressing problems in the Middle East, especially the ones that Washington regards as potential threats to its national security. According to that body of opinion, all these problems can be resolved diplomatically by starting direct and serious talks with Iran. They call this approach the "third way" and they suggest that Washington initiate face-to- face negotiations over placing Iran's nuclear programme under international supervision.

In the process, the parties would discuss all other pending Middle Eastern issues, bringing onboard UN representatives and relevant regional and international parties. The idea is to tie all these issues together in a single bundle and conclude a major pact satisfactory to all parties, especially the US and Iran who have a common interest in Iraq and Afghanistan. Apparently what matters most to Iran is that it is treated as a major regional power and recognised as a partner in international crisis management.

The pact would cover Gaza and Hamas, Israeli settlements in the West Bank, the Middle East peace process, Hizbullah and Lebanese stability, halting military aid to all non-state militias, the repatriation of millions of refugees, and rebuilding trust between Iran and its neighbours. It would also include ending America's deployment of a missile shield in Eastern Europe, not only because Iran perceives the missiles as a potential threat but also in order to placate the Russians who would be participating in the initiative. Few would deny that Iran could be highly instrumental in complicating all these issues or in facilitating their resolution.

Theoretically, under the pact the US would withdraw from Iraq, a Palestinian state would come into existence along the lines of the roadmap carried out by Obama's special Middle East envoy George Mitchell, Israel would be pressured into abiding by international resolutions, including that calling for its withdrawal from the Golan Heights, and there would be revision of the concept of the war on terror.

Evidence that Obama is ready to try the Iranian shortcut is to be found in his repeated affirmations of the need to negotiate directly with Iran without preconditions, much to the irritation of the Zionist lobby and Israel, and in spite of consternation among Arab Gulf countries and other Arab governments fearful of the expansion of Iranian influence and the further skewing of regional balances. But will Obama succeed in this controversial, ambitious and very optimistic project? Will it ever be able to satisfy all the concerned parties? That will certainly be his greatest challenge in the region.