Mubarak, Obama and Bibi

A Netanyahu-led government in Israel and Obama in Washington: what are the prospects for Cairo? asks Dina Ezzat

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It has been almost 30 years since late president Anwar El-Sadat, late Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin and former US president Jimmy Carter signed the first ever Arab-Israeli peace deal initiating what was supposed to be normal relations between Cairo and Tel Aviv. This month, however, there are very few signs that the agreement has fulfilled its promise. After "three decades of cold peace", Egypt and Israel are again having communication and cooperation problems.

Indeed, tensions between Cairo and Tel Aviv, renewed in the last week, are mounting. Egypt's frustration with Israel's last minute demand to condition the conclusion of a truce with Hamas on the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit is evident, compounded by statements attributed to Israeli envoy Amos Gilad whereby he suggested the Egypt was party to the harsh sanctions imposed on Gaza.

Cairo's anger only deepened when Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert decided to suspend Gilad to pursue secret negotiations for the release of Shalit in Paris with Qatar. As a result, Egypt has pulled back a trade delegation that was attending periodical consultations in Tel Aviv. According to sources, Egypt also notified Israel that it would suspend for a while all mediation efforts regarding both the truce and the fate of Shalit.

"We made it clear that while we are committed to pursue all the requirements of regional peace, we do not accept to be let down," said one Egyptian diplomat who asked for his name to be withheld. According to this diplomat, the message that was sent to Israel is "crystal clear". Egypt, this diplomat said, is keen to avoid rocking the boat of peaceful -- but not very active -- relations with Israel, but it would not go along with everything Israel does, "not even under the pretext of internal pressure, as Olmert tried to argue in a message he sent to Cairo following his last minute cold feet on the truce".

According to the Egyptian account, Olmert had agreed "right from the very beginning that the truce and Shalit would be separate tracks". "Israeli misjudgement and consequent mismanagement are not going to go unpaid for. It is a small price, but there is a price still," the source said. In all cases, he added, this tension will not take long to play out as the current Israeli government is exiting the stage in a few weeks. In addition, both Egypt and Israel have a vested interest in promoting a truce between Hamas and Israel.

Beyond current contention, Egypt, sources say, is concerned about what the future will bring with a new Israeli government led by Likud leader Benyamin Netanyahu, especially if it ends up being a far right government. "We do not want to jump to conclusions. We know Netanyahu, and we worked with him when he assumed official posts before. But we hope that he is now more willing to accept the inevitability of a fair peaceful settlement to the Arab-Israeli conflict," commented a peace process diplomat in Cairo.

Even though Netanyahu has declared that the peace process will come third on his agenda, following Iran and the economy, some Egyptian officials seem convinced that he would have to engage in the process more wholeheartedly, if only, as one put it, to impress US President Barack Obama.

Indeed, Obama will be a very important factor in relations between Egypt and Israel. Egypt is pleased with Obama's choice of George Mitchell as US Middle East envoy. Egyptian diplomats underline that Mitchell was the one who some five years ago demanded an end to illegal Israeli settlement building. "And the fact that Mitchell should be reporting directly to the US president and not just to the secretary of state is a clear indication of Obama's intention to get directly involved in managing the Middle East peace file," commented an Egyptian diplomat who formerly served in Washington.

Mitchell's declaration of intent to have a permanent office in Jerusalem, along Israeli apprehensions over his plan, is making Egyptian officials happier. However, these same officials are still cautious. "Obama on Israel: well, that remains a very big question mark, I am afraid," said one.

Obama's choice of Dennis Ross, announced this week, to be in charge of the Iran file sent negative signals, even for Cairo, which is not masking its opposition to Iran's increasing influence in Arab affairs. The choice of Ross indicates that the Jewish lobby in Washington is still capable of influencing -- if not directing -- Obama's Middle East policy, one Egyptian diplomat suggested.

Regardless, Egypt is making no secret of its determination to pursue closer relations with the US under Obama. "The last few years of the [George W] Bush administration were very tough for our bilateral relations. Now we are working to make things different and better," said one Egyptian diplomat in Washington.

Improving Egyptian-American relations, officials insist, is a two-track exercise that includes consensus management of the Arab-Israeli struggle and the careful handling of bilateral issues including US demands for Egypt to democratise more aggressively. The release of opposition figure Ayman Nour last Wednesday was seen by both sides as helpful to the cause of Egyptian-American amity. A possible "judicial exit" to the case against prominent reform advocator Saadeddin Ibrahim, and sooner rather than later, could also be helpful.

"We are going to see signs of good will but we will not accept our arms to be twisted. This is our line," suggested one Egyptian official. According to this official, the release of Nour was timed before an expected visit of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Egypt on 2 March to take part in a Gaza reconstruction conference. However, he added: "It was not forced upon us."

Clinton's upcoming visit and a possible visit by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to Washington in late spring would offer opportunities for Egyptian- American rapprochement. Once progress is achieved, Cairo hopes it can get Washington to pressure Netanyahu into committing to the peace process. While there is some optimism in this regard, there is also realism: "Obama is not an island, he doesn't act on his own. And the US Congress is influenced by the Jewish lobby. We know this very well," said an Egyptian diplomat in Washington.