Sudan and Iran

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Iran's nuclear programme alarms Israel, which says it cannot live with the knowledge that the mullahs have nuclear weapons. The Iranians say this is nonsense, that their programme is peaceful and above board. Caught in the middle is the IAEA, the international atomic watchdog that inspected Iranian reactors and found no evidence of an intention to build nuclear weapons.

Iran is not off the hook. Everyone wants Ahmadinejad to retract his holocaust denying remarks. And Tehran is being told to stop making ballistic missiles and quit helping Lebanese and Palestinian groups. The threat is that otherwise Israel will react, or so outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert promised.

Israel is no stranger to long-range attacks. It demolished an Iraqi nuclear reactor in July 1981. It bombed the Palestine Liberation Organisation offices in Tunisia in 1985. It destroyed an alleged Syrian nuclear facility in September 2007. And a few weeks ago it bombed a convoy supposedly carrying missiles in northeast Sudan.

Can Israel do it again?

In all previous incidents Israel acted with the political approval and military assistance of the US. Even the attack on the Sudanese convoy can be seen as emanating from an agreement Livni and Rice signed recently, one that aims to prevent the smuggling of weapons into Gaza.

Iran is a different thing. Obama wants to talk to the Iranians, not provoke them. He is intent on reducing troops in Iraq and sorting things out in Afghanistan. To do that he needs the Iranians on his side. Israel is less than thrilled with the shift in Washington's focus. And it cannot attack Iran without US help in satellite imaging, electronic jamming, in-flight fuelling, etc.

When Israel shelled the Palestinian command positions in Hammam Al-Shatt in Tunisia in 1985, the US refuelled the attacking F-16s three times during their journey, using three tanker planes that flew out of Rome without the knowledge of the Italian authorities. The Iranian targets are more distant. Attacking Iran is far more complex logistically than anything Israel can manage.

Which may account for Sudan being chosen as a target. It was easy, doable, and it sent a convenient message to Israel's foes around the region. Israel also needed the reassurance, following its loss of face in Lebanon and Gaza, that its military might is still formidable.

Israel has been committing unwarranted aggressions for 60 years, and the world is getting fed up with its belligerency. That's another reason why it cannot strike at Iran at present. Most likely Israel will bide its time until someone, somewhere, is ready to help it take on the mullahs.