Diplomatic surge

The Middle East, Egypt included, will see a sequence of visits among leaders involved in the management of the Arab-Israeli struggle, Dina Ezzat reports

---

Next month, US President Barack Obama is scheduled, as announced, to receive Israel's new premier, Binyamin Netanyahu. The visit, sources in Cairo say, is likely to be followed by two visits by President Hosni Mubarak and Jordanian King Abdullah. "The schedules are not finalised; it is still tentative but it looks likely," said an Egyptian source in reference to Mubarak's anticipated visit to Washington.

In June, Mubarak will be receiving Netanyahu in Sharm El-Sheikh, as Israel announced. "Yes. The visit was tentatively agreed on for the first week of June, but this is not final yet," the same Egyptian source said.

The Netanyahu-Mubarak meet in the Red Sea resort is designed to follow on from Mubarak's talks with Olmert and to take place prior to a first Middle East tour that the US president is expected to make to the Middle East. According to news announced by Israel's daily Haaretz, the visit will target Israel and Ramallah, the seat of the Palestinian Authority. Sources in Cairo say the schedule of the visit is not set and it might include two or three Arab capitals, Cairo being one.

The tentative schedule of visits aside, Cairo, Washington and other Middle Eastern and European capitals are set to progressively engage in diplomatic consultations in search for a way out of what seems to be inevitable stagnation in the Arab-Israeli peace process, especially on the Palestinian track, the Egyptian diplomat said.

"We are all very clear about where Netanyahu stands on peace with the Palestinians, and if anybody had illusions he must have been sobered by the statement the Israeli prime minister made before the Knesset a few days ago where he made no reference to the two-state solution," commented the Egyptian diplomat.

However, he added, Egypt is not willing to allow this realisation to block action to explore avenues for getting Netanyahu to change his initial stance. "We have to think that Netanyahu would ultimately want to avoid going too far in antagonising Obama," he added.

Speaking in Turkey on Tuesday, Obama said that he believed that Middle East peace was possible and that it could be delivered if Palestinians and Israelis were to make the necessary concessions. Palestinian and other Arab sources say that their crucial mission now is to explain to the new US administration the limits that they cannot push when it comes to concessions.

"We want to engage Obama. We want to get him to use his influence with Israel to get it to engage in a serious and productive peace process, but we don't want to be asked to give more concessions because we have already given so much," said one Arab diplomat.

Last week in Doha Arab countries renewed their commitment to negotiating for peace with Israel, but demanded that any future negotiations be based on clear terms of reference and designed to reach specific targets by specific deadlines.

When Obama's envoy for the Middle East, George Mitchell, arrives to the region next week he will be hearing much from Arab diplomats about what the Arab side wants of the US. Mitchell will hear the appreciation of his Arab interlocutors over the renewed commitment that Obama voiced to pursue the two-state solution, but he will also hear much Arab scepticism over negotiating with Netanyahu, especially on the Palestinian track while statements made by Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman dismissed the Annapolis process.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has already expressed reluctance to negotiate with Netanyahu if the latter fails to express a commitment to the two-state solution. Abbas is expected to arrive in Cairo today for talks with President Mubarak on how to approach Obama.

Egyptian and Palestinian diplomats say they are hopeful of progress in national Palestinian reconciliation before these meetings begin to unfold. They add, however, that there are no guarantees that this reconciliation will be attained in the coming four weeks. And while Egypt announced plans to host another round of talks among the Palestinian factions, privately Egyptian sources express apprehension that this next round, too, might falter.