Above ground, and below

Abdel-Moneim Said* examines the complex web of threats to Egypt's national security

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In recent years I have repeatedly cautioned against the dangers threatening Egyptian national security and have always urged that we must not allow our concern for the Palestinian cause and the realisation of legitimate Arab rights, especially the return of Arab territory occupied by Israel in 1967 and the establishment of an independent state with its capital in East Jerusalem, to drive us into a situation that places our national security under direct threat. My appeal was not founded on purely Egyptian considerations, as valid as it would be to do so, but also upon the belief that preserving Egypt's peace is the sole guarantee for any possibility of realising Arab rights. Other Arab countries stand to gain little from a harassed and imperilled Egypt or, worse, an Egypt consumed by wars the time and place of which it has no liberty to choose. Other Arab countries can only benefit from an Egypt that is free, developing, capable and strong in its international and regional influence.

Egypt's autonomy should not be yoked to the decisions of adventurous Arab governments and groups who too readily put their own and other peoples at risk because they are incapable of differentiating between demagoguery tailored for local consumption and the subtler and more flexible arts of politics. This was why I was among those who greeted the Hamas takeover in Gaza in June 2007 with grave misgivings, justifiably so in view of the deep wedge that has been driven between the Palestinian people and the surge in arms smuggling into Gaza through the tunnels beneath its border with Egypt. In my opinion, truce or no truce, war between Hamas and Israel was only a matter of time, and I was particularly anxious about how this war would impact on Egypt's national security. Through articles in various newspapers and in the Shura Council's Committee for Arab Affairs and National Security, I repeatedly attempted to warn of Hamas's designs to embroil Egypt.

Eventually the war broke out, and it became clear that there was, indeed, a widespread attempt not only to involve Egypt by means of the arms smuggling but also via a campaign to isolate it politically, pressure it diplomatically and attack it through the media and in other ways. Those that colluded in this game were Hamas, Hizbullah and Iran, with occasional contributions from other parties, such as Qatar and Syria, depending on the time and needs. It also became clear during the war and its aftermath that Cairo, alone, held the keys to securing a ceasefire, rescuing the Palestinians, brokering an arrangement between Israel and Hamas and fostering Palestinian reconciliation. This is something other forces cannot abide, for which reason they have striven constantly to forestall Egypt's initiatives or prevent them from succeeding. A case in point is the Egyptian effort to broker Palestinian reconciliation, the key to managing the current political and diplomatic situation following President Barack Obama's rise to power and the formation of a new government in Israel.

Recently the threat to Egyptian security has acquired two dimensions beyond what is occurring above and below ground along the Gaza border. Both demand serious consideration. The first is related to Israel's aerial assaults against Sudan, which have revealed the existence of an extensive arms smuggling operation from Iran to Sudanese ports and from there through Egyptian territory or territorial waters to Gaza. In addition to these arms networks that seek to plunge Egypt into a situation that conflicts with its international obligations and that could subject it to military engagements that were not determined through constitutionally stipulated decision-making channels, the raids also revealed the extent of Israeli intelligence penetration into these areas, be they Iranian or Sudanese ports and even the Sudanese government, which denied that the smuggling operations passed through Egyptian territory. It is alarming even to contemplate how a racist and belligerent government in Israel could turn such connections to the service of its own aims and agendas.

The second dimension emerged in the investigation currently underway into a Hizbullah run network that sought to set up bases in Rafah and the Suez Canal cities. The circle is complete: Hamas wants to drag Egypt into the battle by arms smuggling along the border and Iran and Hizbullah are working together to smuggle arms via Sudan and Hizbullah bases in Egypt. The arms are not only destined for Gaza but also for use inside Egypt. All we need to do now is add the campaign of propaganda invective against Egypt and you have the ingredients for terrorist activities on Egyptian soil ostensibly justified by the popular anger against the peace treaties and Egypt's domestic and foreign policies. We only have to link the speech Hassan Nasrallah delivered during the Gaza crisis calling upon the Egyptian people to rebel and the Egyptian armed forces to storm across the Gaza borders to fully fathom the implications of the recent wave of arrests triggered by the belief that Hizbullah has actually established bases on Egyptian territory.

In articles intended for publication in Egypt, in particular, I have made it a custom to focus on domestic issues, with particular attention to the question of development, which I believe is crucial not only to Egypt's progress but also to safeguarding its national security. After all, this task cannot be accomplished through military might, alone. It requires the more extensive process of achieving comprehensive parity with any prospective enemy. This by no means entails turning a blind eye to concrete threats to Egypt's national security, whether originating from Israel in the form of its nuclear and conventional weapons or in the form of extremist chauvinistic and racist groups, or from other Arab and regional forces that are attempting to bend Egypt to their own ends and, intentionally or not, drag it into peril. Events over recent months have been working in this direction, to which testify the extreme radicalisation in Israel and the actions of Palestinian, Arab and Iranian groups. Fortunately the Egyptian authorities have been vigilant and have shown themselves capable of warding off the evil.

Not everything, though, can be seen beforehand and the unexpected could always happen. There are certain groups in Egypt that are incapable of viewing Egypt's national security independently from Palestinian and Arab contexts. These form fertile ground for forces bent on toying with our national security and, therefore, should be the focus of a political drive aimed at strengthening our collective resolve and better fortifying the country.

* The writer is director of Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.