Reality below the surface

The revelation of a Hizbullah cell in Egypt is just the tip of the iceberg of far deeper regional problems, writes Abdel-Moneim Said*

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It is mistaken to think that the discovery of an underground Hizbullah network in Egypt only has bearings on tense relations between Cairo and that Islamist organisation. In fact, it has more to do with developments in the Arab region as a whole. First, the Hizbullah ring is not about smuggling arms, ammunition and aid to Gaza at a time when Palestinians are undergoing a crucial and painful ordeal. Investigations have established that the first cell in this network was planted as early as 2005 and that the prime suspect, Mohamed Sami Mansour, was arrested on 19 November 2008, several weeks before the Israeli war on Gaza. Second, we are talking about a complete infrastructure for carrying out diverse paramilitary operations aimed at striking whatever targets and achieving whatever aims in the mind of those who control it. Gaza may have been one objective, but probably not the most important. Third, the network extends beyond the connection between Beirut, where the orders are given, Cairo, where the network leaders lurk, and the Sinai and Suez Canal where the unearthed operations were taking place. Rather, it is part of a larger international network in which are interwoven other arms smuggling networks, most notably from Iran through the Gulf, the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea, to Sudanese ports and from there through Egyptian territories or other areas. Fourth, a network of this size and with this many components has the flexibility and scope to carry out strikes against any number of Arab countries. One can only guess at its links with similar networks in other countries, such as Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, Jordan, and beyond. Finally, a network of this size, diversity and capabilities could not operate on such a scope and scale without being in full coordination with the intelligence, military and other government agencies of a state. The state, in this case, is Iran.

The foregoing points indicate clearly that the lines of confrontation are not between Egypt and Hizbullah, or even Cairo and Hassan Nasrallah, but rather between radical militant forces in the region and moderate forces. The pattern of outcries and condemnations that we have heard over the past few days suggests that this conflict has entered a new phase, even though it has come to light that the planning and preparations for the networks began not only before the war on Gaza but also before the war in Lebanon, in the summer of 2006. From this perspective, the timing of those wars was not coincidental. Rather, they were engagements preparatory to the build-up of a violent revolutionary movement of an increasingly expanding scope and escalating intensity targeting many Arab countries.

Sadly we have seen it all before. This is far from the first time in the contemporary history of the Middle East that radical forces commandeered the Palestinian cause to spread dissension and turned "resistance", "steadfastness" and "solidarity" from essential assets in the process of liberating occupied territory and obtaining legitimate rights into instruments for securing or maintaining control over society in one Arab country or another, and, secondly, for aiding and abetting radical groups in other countries and otherwise working to destabilise governments that refuse to be intimidated. Among the innumerable examples, Saddam wielded the Palestinian cause as a weapon in order to seize control in Iraq and, later, in order to invade Kuwait. The Syrian Baath regime similarly used the Palestinians as its pretext for invading in Lebanon and meddling in Lebanese affairs. Today, Tehran and its ally Hizbullah are capitalising on the Palestinian cause to secure control in Lebanon and, from there, to infiltrate other Arab countries. Hassan Nasrallah was not the least bit embarrassed when admitting to the existence of his underground network in Egypt. To him this was perfectly natural, regardless of whether or not the Egyptians minded or whether their government regarded his ring as a threat. After all, Egyptian of any form is not what counts but rather obeying the commands of the wise men that know how to steer the battle.

The alignments in the Middle East have become something of a tangle. The lines are drawn not just between Arab countries and non-Arab ones, or even between some Arab countries and others, but also within individual Arab countries. Sometimes it is even hard to discern the black threads from the white in the darkness that never sees dawn. Perhaps Sudan offers a salient example. This far-flung country has enormous wealth and potential. However, radical Islamism injected its virus and plunged it into endless religious wars, provincial uprisings and terrorist activities. The consequence of this virulence is that the south is on the verge of secession, a deep fissure separates Darfur in the west from the centre, and the country is riddled with other signs of fragmentation and collapse. On top of this crumbling nation sits a man wanted by the International Criminal Court. Yet in spite of these tragic circumstances the president of a country about to join the ranks of failed states rushes off to Doha at the time of the Gaza war in order to embrace the president of Iran. Then a little while later we discover that his country is a corridor in an arms smuggling operation via Egypt and a major link in the Hizbullah underground network that leads out of Iran. Moreover, even as it is being dismantled, Sudan is taking part in a similar process of dismantling Yemen by means of vicious mountain battles against the central authorities, in spite of the fact that Sanaa is one of the most staunch followers of the Palestinian cause. The purpose of all of this is to link the bases and strengthen the relations between various failed states, in which chaos, revolutionary movements and religious zealotry rule beneath the holy banner of the Palestinian cause and defying the rape of Palestine.

There is much to learn from the case of the Hizbullah ring in Egypt. Fortunately, the Egyptian government had the skill and leverage to deal with this multi-tiered conspiracy. In tandem with the military aspect, there was the political dimension, capitalising on some Egyptian opposition groups that were naïve enough to have fallen into the trap of exposing Egyptian security to danger for the sake of the Palestinian cause that Hizbullah wields so deftly for its own ends. At the same time, there was the media dimension, that took advantage of that long queue of the disaffected who are forever ready to cheer and march behind anyone who promises to liberate Palestine, even if the path to liberation has to pass through Kuwait, Cairo or Beirut. I refer here to certain Arab satellite networks, the bastion of all who are ready to sacrifice the facts for another radical sound bite.

None of the foregoing could have occurred were it not for the strategic vacuum in the region. In former times, they said that the bad guys went at large when the good guys faded from the scene or bowed to the glittering lights and the stories that went along with them. In all events, over the past few days, many are the commentators in Cairo and other moderate capitals that open their articles with startled apologetic remarks expressing their admiration for Nasrallah and Hizbullah, and its "venerable history" of resistance with special mention of that victory that was so perfectly attuned to Israeli standards, which placed no value on Arab lives, civilian or military, and with no mention whatsoever of the strategic consequences of that war, as it played out on the ground, which effectively had Nasrallah transporting his resistance from Lebanon and the liberation of Shabaa Farms to Cairo.

The time has come to take a look at the "unconstructive" chaos that Iran and its adjuncts are trying to sew, because of its potential future repercussions. Egypt may have succeeded in defusing the situation this time, but it must not drop its guard. Radical forces are quite dogged in pursuing their hopes and plans -- when it comes to other Arab countries that have come into their crosshairs -- for sewing panic, destruction and dissension. I have no doubt that there has been considerable consultation between various parties during recent days. However, the situation requires much more than just some information exchange and temporary cooperation. What is needed is a comprehensive strategy, because what is really wrong entails far more than just a terrorist ring in Egypt.

* The writer is director of Al-Ahram Centre for Political & Strategic Studies.