How will it all end?

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Maybe he'll reveal it on 4 June, or in the weeks and months to follow. But at one point, Obama will have to give us his plan for the Middle East. And we'll either have to play along, so as to put the Israelis to shame if they don't, or we'll risk a confrontation like the one the Palestinians had with Bill Clinton. So what type of plan is one to expect from the new US president?

For starters, Obama is likely to urge the Palestinians to press on with the elimination of terror and to start building their political and administrative institutions. He may also tell Israel to remove all barriers blocking the free movement of Palestinians in the West Bank. Furthermore, Israel would be asked to relax the siege on Gaza and let food and medicine pass through. The Americans are also likely to advise the Israelis to facilitate the movement of civilians and allow civil reconstruction to begin. International plans for economic development are likely to be part of the deal. And Arab and Islamic countries would be asked to reciprocate by opening their airspace to Israeli planes, allow Israelis to visit, and allow direct phone calls to Israel.

This is just the warming up part. As for the real part, the much- anticipated peace deal, the US president is likely to propose a two-state solution. Israel would be asked to stop building settlements and even dismantle some existing ones. But major settlement areas are likely to stay. Israel would be allowed to keep them in a scheme of land exchange that would give the Palestinians geographical contiguity.

As for security, don't even think twice. Israel's security will be guaranteed at the expense of the Palestinians and the sovereignty of their state. The Palestinians are not going to have an army to mention, nor the ability to have defence agreements with parties hostile to Israel.

Expect Jerusalem to be declared the capital of two states. The Arabs may be allowed control of their own quarters and the Jews will keep -- and expand -- their areas. Third parties may take control of some of the holy shrines.

The refugees are not to be allowed back into Israel, but those who wish may be allowed into the Palestinian state. Those wishing to reside in their host countries may be allowed to do so. And an option of compensation or immigration to a third country may be offered as well in keeping with the Geneva Accords and the Clinton understandings. A compensation fund is likely to be set up with US- European-Japanese-Gulf funding.

Arab countries would be encouraged to reciprocate and move closer to normalisation with Israel, but full normalisation would have to await the final settlement, which would be guaranteed by the US and the Quartet. The US and NATO are likely to deploy forces in Palestinian areas, perhaps with the help of other nations. The task of the international force would be to help the Palestinian Authority strengthen its hand on power. Hamas is likely to be incorporated into the new regime. Otherwise, it would have to be dismantled or somehow brought to heel.

This is not a perfect proposal, but don't expect anything better. At some point, the Arabs will have to make the most of a raw deal. Alternatively, they may just play along in the hope of making the Israelis look bad. The worst option, however, is for the Arabs to start ceding their rights without any guarantee that Israel will withdraw or allow a viable Palestinian state to exist. So let's think before we make further concessions.