Alarming call

Al-Maliki's bid for an end to "consensus rule" is sending shock waves around Iraq, writes Salah Hemeid

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Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki speaks to a meeting of tribal elders from all over Iraq in Baghdad on Saturday. Al-Maliki called on the end of "compatibility of democracy and quotas", stressing the need to return to the "Constitution and the law"

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki stunned many in Iraq when he called this week for majority rule and repeated his preference for the presidential system instead of the parliamentary one, in place since 2005 when a new constitution was endorsed in a public referendum. In an address to a gathering of a Sunni tribal chieftains Saturday, Al-Maliki said "sectarian sharing" of power is a "catastrophe".

Ethnic and religious "preferences" should be eliminated and instead be replaced by a "majority rule" system according to "electoral results". Al-Maliki noted that establishing consensus on major decisions among Iraq's religious, ethnic and sectarian communities was necessary after 2003 to bring stability to a country torn apart by the war, but is no longer needed.

This call for a reduction in power-sharing is his latest in a series of proposals to centralise power in Iraq especially decision-making processes on national issues. Though the Shia prime minister did not mention Kurds and Sunnis, he was apparently referring to the perception that requiring a consensus has given the two minorities a greater political voice than they deserve based on the size of their overall population and their share in the 275-seat parliament.

After the 2003 US invasion and the overthrow of the regime of Saddam Hussein, American experts who participated in drafting the new constitution suggested that the new political system should be based on "consensus democracy" meaning that that process of legislation and the decision-making structure should be based on as broad a range of opinions as possible, as opposed to systems where minority opinions can potentially be ignored by vote- winning majorities.

The new system, which in theory features increased citizen participation both in determining the political agenda and in the decision-making process itself, was meant to give minority Kurds and Sunni Arabs a veto power to block any attempt by majority Shias to dominate the decision-making process. Though the constitution did not specifically state any sectarian or ethnic sharing of wealth and power, the new system divided all major political posts, such as the president, his two deputies, the prime minister and parliament's speaker among the three main communities.

In theory, the structure of governance was meant to be based on a new concept of decisions-making which had decentralised the government and the role of leadership through building a new shared vision. In practice, the system, however, turned into a monopoly of power through a tight control of the public service and the national resources by the ruling clique instead of getting the right people to the right job and ensuring a fair distribution of the nation's wealth.

If Al-Maliki's proposal is implemented, Kurds and Sunnis risk being marginalised, resulting in further insecurity and instability. Indeed, the call has alarmed Kurdish leaders about potential threats to the gains they have made since the collapse of Saddam's regime. Adopting a democracy that could give them greater input into local and national decision-making could be the only safeguard left for the Kurds.

Kurdish President Jalal Talabani was quick to dismiss Al-Maliki's proposal. "Iraq cannot be ruled by the majority or minority. Iraqis are like one bouquet of flowers. They still need to work according to the principle of consensus by all components," he said. Kurdish representatives were even harsher in their criticism, labeling Al-Maliki as a dictator, in favour of an authoritarian centralised government.

Al-Maliki's comments also fuelled Sunni leaders' suspicion and anger as they realised that the move will strip them of their veto power over decisions not serving their interests. "Consensus is still badly needed in the political process, and marginalisation and exclusion are harmful," said Sunni Vice-President Tareq Al-Hashimi. Adnan Al-Duleimi, head of the Sunni bloc Iraqi Accordance Front described Al-Maliki's call for a presidential system as a "violation of the constitution".

Al-Maliki's call to end rule by "consensus" comes before parliamentary elections due in January which he hopes will put him back in power for four more years, after the sweeping gains his allies made in January's local polls. His self-confidence is on the rise after he concluded a security agreement with the United States that will allow Washington to pull out most of its troops by the end of 2011. He is also trying to build a reputation as a national leader who tries to overcome sectarianism and reach out to all Iraqis regardless of their ethnicity. That is being interpreted as an attempt to wield more authority and power in the central government at the expense of his current partners.

But for all Al-Maliki's assertions that his call was meant to transfer Iraq's politics from sectarian alliances to national ones, the move has aroused the fear that Al-Maliki is paving the way for another authoritarian regime in Iraq after the US-led invasion that was widely boasted as designed to get rid of Saddam's dictatorship. It's true that the current system of consensus has many shortcomings such as the ineffectiveness of the central government and delays in the process of decision-making, but majority rule will most certainly turn democracy into a façade allowing Al-Maliki to sidestep the mainstream and pushing his small and little popular Daawa Party into the forefront of the nation's public life.

One of the biggest concerns is that Al-Maliki's move could also be interpreted as an attempt by Shia to gain absolute power in a country already divided by deep sectarianism and ethnic interests. At the root is the fear by Kurds and Sunnis that they will be marginalised by a Shia-led government which will gain the majority of seats in the coming parliamentary elections. Majority rule will undermine the vitality of Iraq's democracy that functions on assimilation of the country's diverse ethnicities and integration of their differences and interests.

All this comes as the country is entering a new crucial phase with the upcoming withdrawal of American troops from Iraqi cities. Many experts believe the US pullback to outlying bases could trigger a return to the pre- surge pattern of violence that put the country on the verge of civil war in 2006 and 2007. As the political process is still stalemated with numerous conflicts and deep mistrust, implementing Al-Maliki's vision would most likely plunge the country into further political crises and division.