The promise of green shoots

On the eve of its tenth presidential election Iran is at a critical juncture, Mustafa El-Labbad reports from Tehran

---

For days Tehran has been gridlocked by huge demonstrations in support of the two leading candidates, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Mir Hussein Mousavi. Mehdi Karrubi and Mohsen Rezai, who are also standing, are rank outsiders.

The contest reached boiling point when Hashemi Rafsanjani appealed to the republic's Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei, claiming Ahmadinejad had lied when he accused Rafsanjani and his family of corruption.

Protests against the current president have been growing daily, particularly among the urban young. It is now common to see green sashes (Mousavi's campaign colour) around foreheads, wrist and necks in Tehran. Iranian girls even paint their nails green to show their support.

Posters of the rival candidates plaster walls, and their supporters compete on Tehran's streets, shouting out slogans. Mousavi's supporters, in particular, have displayed a talent for vilifying the current president.

Al-Ahram Weekly followed one demonstration in support of Mousavi in Tehran. The streets were overflowing with tens of thousands of young people walking arm-in-arm, calling his name and assorted campaign slogans, including "We will win," "Down with dictatorship," and "Lying is forbidden," the latter a reference to Ahmadinejad's penchant for over optimistic statements on Iran's economy.

It will be difficult to turn back the impetus unleashed by Mousavi's campaign. Iran's young appear resolutely in favour of opening up to the world. They are demanding individual freedoms that will persist after the elections.

It is still early to talk of overturning balances of power. What is certain is that tomorrow's elections will attract a vast turnout, surpassing the 60 to 65 per cent of voters that typically go to the polls in Iran. Any increased turnout is likely to favour reformist candidate, and a re-count may yet be necessary to decide the results.

As Mousavi's campaign develops impetus, so Ahmadinejad's seems to slow. True, his support is concentrated within powerful institutions, including the Revolutionary Guard, a large proportion of clerics, the security services and the state bureaucracy. Yet popular support for Mousavi will prevent such institutions from influencing the elections tomorrow. Iran is at a watershed in the history of its revolution. The current presidential elections are a sign of new orientations emerging with Iran's political regime. The country may yet have a date with green.

photo: AP