Chaos in Iran

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The greatest and most immediate danger facing Iran now is not whether the hardliners who support Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's electoral victory prevail or whether the reformists succeed in overturning the election results in order to give their candidate, Mir-Hussein Mousavi, another go. Rather, it is the spectre of a bloodbath and chaos that would give every party currently poised on the sidelines, whether inside Iran or abroad, opportunity to fish in murky waters in order to promote their own ends. Worse yet, the resultant turmoil could quickly spill over Iran's borders and engulf the entire region. Proponents of "constructive chaos" may believe that an escalation of the situation in Iran will topple the hardliners and conservatives, but the fact is it is impossible to predict the outcome of such a game. All possibilities are open, including the possibility of entrenching the control of hardliners.

US President Barack Obama was very astute in his handling, so far, of the election aftermath in Iran. In stating that he saw no significant difference between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi from the American perspective, since both were part of the establishment of a regime that is hostile to the US, he declared his resolve not to be dragged into a form of meddling that could easily backfire. He reminded audiences of the delicacy of the situation, especially in view of past US actions towards Iran, and affirmed that he would deal with whoever is declared Iranian president in accordance with the basis Washington has laid out for prospective dialogue.

It was a balanced and constructive position, but one not guaranteed to please all. On Friday, supporters of the old regime entered into the fray in the form of statements issued by Reza Pahlevi, son of the deposed Shah of Iran, calling for a campaign of civil disobedience in order to overthrow the current regime. Although he claimed that he had no intent of restoring the monarchy, he offered to assume any position in Iran for the sake of "liberating the nation". His choice of words leaves doubt that he seeks not just reform but a complete overthrow of the Iranian revolutionary order. The goal is one shared by Israel, which believes that the survival of the Ayatollah Khomeini order poses an "existential threat", regardless of whether it is led by a hardliner like Ahmadinejad or a reformist like Mousavi.

So there are parties rubbing their hands at what they think is a golden opportunity to settle scores or to shape the future of Iran in the way that suits them. Of course, the factor they seem to block out from their view is that the Iranian people will have the ultimate say. And their decision is certain not to please any of the opportunists, especially once they realise the dangers of the quagmire of chaos the opportunists are hoping for.