Withdrawal symptoms

Iraqi leaders insist they can maintain security as American troops leave the country's cities, writes Salah Hemeid

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Iraq took the first step Tuesday towards regaining its sovereignty after more than six years of military occupation. US combat troops pulled out of the capital and other cities and towns in a move that should, under the security accord signed between Baghdad and Washington in November, pave the way for a full withdrawal by 2012. But fears are rising that the pullout will create a power vacuum that may plunge the violence-ravaged country into deeper uncertainty.

Ahead of the scheduled redeployment the government trumpeted the 30 June deadline as a turning point, with Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki declaring it National Sovereignty Day despite growing doubts about the government's ability and preparedness to maintain security.

The withdrawals take place as a spate of bombings has claimed more than 250 lives since 20 June. Most of the deadly bombings have targeted Shia, fuelling apprehension of renewed sectarian violence similar to that which followed the 2006 bombing of the Shia holy shrine in Samaraa.

In preparation for the withdrawal the Iraqi authorities declared a state of national emergency and tightened security across urban areas. All police leave has been cancelled and extra troops have been drafted in to the most volatile areas.

Though Al-Maliki concedes renewed attacks may be aimed at stirring up sectarian tensions, he said he was confident that his government could maintain security.

"They want to sweep delight from the Iraqi people's hearts. They have revealed their real intentions," said Al-Maliki. "But this will not bend our determination and will for what we have agreed upon -- that is, to return the responsibility for security to our military and police forces," he said.

General Ray Odierno, the senior US commander in Iraq, joined the chorus of cheerleaders for the new security arrangements. On Sunday he expressed his confidence in the Iraqi security forces and in an interview broadcast on CNN said the attacks ahead of the pullout were an attempt to divert attention from the progress made by the Iraqi government. Yet he also warned Americans to expect the number of attacks to rise as US troops pull back.

The escalation in violence has led some Iraqis to question whether their fledging forces will be able to cope on their own. Beyond the calls for celebrations, Al-Maliki does not seem to have a concrete strategy to deal with the enormous challenges his government is expected to face after the US pullout, and many analysts worry that incompetence and sectarian partiality among the security forces will impede them in the daunting task they face.

An even bigger challenge will be to find a political and power sharing agreement acceptable to the country's competing ethnic groups. Concerns are being raised on whether the withdrawal can succeed in the absence of any political settlement to Iraq's many disputes, particularly in the run-up to parliamentary elections next January. Although the government has accused the terror network of Al-Qaeda, and the remnants of Saddam Hussein's regime, of being behind the recent attacks -- some Iraqi politicians have even blamed neighbouring countries -- few doubt that internal Iraqi power struggles are contributing to the violence.

Aware of concerns about the spiral in violence and political instability in the region, US President Barack Obama has asked Vice-President Joe Biden to take a leading role on Iraq after the drawdown of combat troops. Newsweek reported that Biden has been charged with "raising the level" in the hope that his stature encourages Iraqi officials to bridge their political differences. The magazine quoted administration officials saying Obama and his aides were worried about the recent spate of bombings and the Iraqi security forces' ability to respond, as well as Al-Maliki's reluctance "to engage in... political give-and-take".

While it is true that 130,000 American troops will remain in Iraq until next September and the Iraqis will be able to call on them for help to do so would have serious political implications for Al-Maliki, who is expected to fight hard for another term in office in January's election. His enemies know this all too well and will do their best to force him to call the Americans for help.

Al-Maliki could well resort to strong arm tactics to show that he is the kind of powerful leader Iraq needs at this crucial juncture of its history. This is exactly what many Iraqis fear, that he will need a show of force not only to end the insurgency but also to silence opponents and bolster his emerging dictatorship.

Staging parties in isolated public squares and playing patriotic songs as fireworks are let off under heavy security is the easy part of Al-Maliki's celebration of the American pullout from Iraqi cities and towns. It will be much harder to make security hold and then proceed to rebuild the devastated nation on the bases of full sovereignty, national reconciliation, partnership and equality.

photo: AP