War or no war: decide!

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Repeated threats by the US and Israel of military action against Iran have stirred considerable alarm around the world. To many in Middle East countries, the thought of a bombardment of Iranian nuclear reactors conjures up nightmarish end-of-the-world scenarios. Reports of Israeli air force and navy manoeuvres have aggravated anxieties. They suggest that the 11th hour is at hand and once it strikes the whole region will be engulfed in flames, especially in view of the Iranian threat that in the event of a strike it would retaliate with a powerful missile barrage against Israel and US forces and bases in Arab countries.

The mounting stridency in the rhetoric of the various parties to the Iranian crisis suggests that what is really happening is a war of nerves against various powers in the region in order to intimidate them into making concessions on other issues. One is reminded of pickpockets staging fake quarrels in order to divert attention from those who only realise that their wallets have been lifted long after the fuss has died down. In fact, there is good reason to believe that the war drums we are hearing between the US and Israel, on the one side, and Iran, on the other, are merely intended to raise a bogeyman. The reason is quite simple: neither the US, nor Iran, nor Israel for that matter, is in a position domestically, regionally or internationally to embark on an armed conflict of the magnitude that they suggest and that they hint could go as far as using nuclear weapons.

On the other hand, if the threats are real then perhaps what would be best for the Arab world is to bear in mind the adage, "Disaster striking is better than waiting for it to strike." At least once Israel and Iran "get it over with" we will be able to see the real lay of the land. Either Israel will prove that it does have the power that qualifies it for the superior position it claims or it will show that it is just a paper tiger and should resign itself to a position that matches its true size. The same applies to Iran. Either it will demonstrate that there is substance behind the Iranian revolution and its claims to being able to stand up against the forces of aggression and destruction or it will face the same tragic scenario that the Arabs and Muslims encountered with Saddam Hussein's Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan.

In other words, a military confrontation would put paid to the ambitions and designs of some powers in the region whose current size and stature have been built up by the rhetorical bravado of their leaders and their skilful media machines. Conversely, the prolonging of this state of no war, no peace only serves to keep Arab countries, in particular, at the mercy of attempts on the part of the main protagonists to blackmail and intimidate them. So as long as the Americans, Israelis and Iranians are so fond of this game of brinkmanship, maybe one of them can do us the favour of taking that leap into the breach. If not, they should just give it a rest and call off the war drums.