Nothing doing

Having aroused little enthusiasm among Iraqis, the ruling elites are gearing up for next year's parliamentary elections, writes Salah Hemeid

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Iraqi members of parliament go home for their last summer recess later this month amid increasing criticism, derided for having disgraced what was once hailed as a democratic miracle. As the country prepares for its second general election since the 2003 fall of Saddam Hussein's regime, many Iraqis have begun losing interest in going to the polls yet again to choose a sect- based and corruption-ridden parliament.

The first House of Representatives, which mostly met in chaotic sessions marred by shouting, finger-pointing and walkouts, has failed to approve amendments of the constitution, to sign off on a still unfinished oil and gas law, to endorse an agreement on disputed provinces and draft a new election law -- key steps in laying the foundation for a lasting peace. When the council called for questioning government ministers on serious charges, such as corruption or neglect of duty, no official even bothered to show up.

Many members of the 275-seat assembly have not participated in any debates. Some don't even bother to show up. Others stay outside Iraq most of the time. A few members were either indicted or accused of committing major crimes, such as terrorism or, extortion and bribe taking, while others are widely seen as militia strongmen or alleged crooks who use their position to advance their private agendas or shady businesses. Yet none of this mischief seems to have inhibited these members or the groups that had fielded them in the 2005 election to seek membership in the next parliament despite four years of political drift.

Iraq's next balloting is scheduled for January 2010, but the most ardent question which Iraqis face now is whether they will have to vote again for the same groups which have sent these good-for-nothing members to their first parliament after Saddam's autocratic era, or if they will have a political process that leads to national renewal. Those who believe that change is not coming are sceptical with good reason, as the same ruling groups are preparing to reimpose their grip on the assembly and the country at large.

Preparations for the elections are in full swing and reports from Baghdad suggest that competing factions are making hectic efforts to either rebuild their coalitions or forge new alliances to fight in January's election. And with national mainstream trends weakened, or completely marginalised, the ethnic and sect-based groups are again making headway in their drive to remain as the major national and regional players and govern the country alone as they have done since the US invasion.

Naturally, the Shia alliance, which controls the government, hopes to retain its monopoly on the parliament, relying on their resources to mobilise the majority of Shia voters to participate en masse in the election. Representatives of Shia groups who fought the last election under the umbrella of the Unified Iraqi Collation are holding intensive negotiations to rebuild the alliance which had fractured over the last four years because of internecine fighting. Their concern is not the reconstruction of the devastated country, but rather how to divide power and share the state resources among themselves.

Weeks of behind-closed-doors meetings and secret negotiations among the main Shia groups have shown a deepening power struggle over issues that remain far from resolved. The key problem is which group should lead the new coalition and how to allocate seats in the next government. While the Supreme Islamic Council wants to retain leadership of the alliance, other groups such as Al-Sadrieen, followers of Muqtada Sadr, the Fadhila Party and other smaller groups are vying for positions in the domestic Iraqi battle for power. Overconfident and highly ambitious Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki seems unlikely to give in; he is reportedly insisting on keeping the post of PM in the next government, having full control on its policymaking in addition to allocating the majority of the Shia seats in the new parliament to his Daawa Party.

Kurds are expected to maintain their current coalition of the two main parties unchanged, although the Kurdish establishment has been under fire in the run-up to this month's regional election for corruption and mismanagement. As for Arab Sunnis, it is unclear whether they will maintain their fragile alliance in parliament or try something new. Like their Shia and Kurdish counterparts, Sunni lawmakers have long been derided by their constituencies as worthless power- hungry politicians who have vested interests in keeping the focus on the sectarian row which they have been using to buy themselves easy popularity.

Trapped in this narrowly focussed situation and being unable to introduce an honest, strong and unified leadership, Arab Sunnis will lose yet another opportunity to influence national politics positively if they fail to field new relevant candidates. On Saturday Ahmed Abdel-Ghafour Al-Samaraei, a prominent Sunni sheikh, announced that he is forming a new political group, the Iraqi Charter Assembly to contest the next election, a sign that Sunnis are now looking for more able and respected representatives.

The Iraqi ruling cliques swept the 2005 polling because of rising sectarianism which did not give the public the chance to gauge other opinions. The election's furore now comes amidst increasing national apathy as Iraqis are preoccupied with more immediate issues of day-to-day survival. Corruption is rampant, bribery has become a way of life, and kickbacks are pervasive at every government level. Electricity, clean water and sewage are still in severely short supply. More than six years after the US invasion Iraqis still lack basic public services such as health, education and housing. Nearly four million Iraqis are still displaced either inside or outside Iraq. Worsening violence plagues many parts of the countries despite some 500,000 troops that the government now has under its control.

The question which must now be haunting Iraqis is whether there is an alternative for this mess. Can they vote in new, competent and nationally appealing lawmakers when they go to the polls next time? The sad fact is that Iraq still lacks a strong and coherent national mainstream movement that can provide an alternative to the current sectarian horse-trading.