Old medicine

By Salama A Salama

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We mustn't prejudge the intensive talks President Hosni Mubarak had in Washington with US President Barack Obama. Nor should we expect a swift change of the current scene in the Middle East. Will Israel suddenly renounce its bellicose tendencies and stop grabbing Palestinian land? So far, this seems unlikely.

What happened was but a new chapter in a long running conflict -- a sequel, if you will, to the Quartet, the roadmap, Annapolis, and what have you. Things have changed since the departure of George W Bush and his administration. Things have changed since Yasser Arafat died and again since Fatah and Hamas turned against one another. New players have come onto the scene, and old players have faded.

A rightwing US president who was hostile to Arabs and Muslims has been replaced with a man more representative of the cultural mood of Americans. Obama wants to change America and to alter its relation with the Islamic world and the Middle East. His visit to Cairo and speech to the Arab and Islamic world was a call for change and a fresh attempt to bring even- handedness to the region.

During the past seven months, the Obama administration acted with vigour, sending George Mitchell for talks with the Egyptians, Israelis, Palestinians, Syrians and Saudis. When Mubarak decided to go to Washington following five years of estrangement, this was a sign that confidence was restored and that a fresh approach to the Palestinian problem was possible.

We who have no insider knowledge of the course of the talks must go by what is heard in public. So far, the US president made a few promises and Mubarak outlined the terms of a just peace. Now we must wait and see how the American plan plays out. The hardest part, one would think, is to make Israel commit to an end of all settlement building -- not just temporarily but for good, before talks begin.

Before everyone rushes into normalisation with Israel, in search for immediate benefits, let's think first. Let's not forget that Condoleezza Rice, former secretary of state, kept running back and forth between Washington and the region to make Israel stop settlement building, and nothing happened.

By now, Mubarak and Obama must have made things clear to each other. Mubarak must have relayed to Obama the Arab point of view, and Obama must have told Mubarak of what's on Israel's mind. But before the UN General Assembly convenes in September, don't expect much to happen.

Egypt sees the Palestinian problem as the focus of all Middle East misery. But let's not forget that Egyptian-US relations have an extensive impact on all regional affairs, developments in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Sudan, the Gulf, and Iran included. For now, Egypt must distance itself from any US military plans and from any defence schemes the Americans may be planning for the region.

There are many scenarios one can think of and many plans that people talk about. And some of these are a reason for concern. Should political efforts fail to resolve the dispute over the nuclear programme, Iran may come under military attack. This is what Israel wants. The Israelis are turning the Iranian nuclear programme into a central component of Middle East talks.

Mubarak's visit to Washington is a sign that cooperation is possible. What we don't yet know is the possible outcome of such cooperation. There is a chance we'll end up with the palliatives offered by many previous US administrations. Perhaps we'll get nothing but the same old medicine, only differently packaged and labelled.

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