Whereto Kifaya?

Has the Egyptian Movement for Change outlived its usefulness, asks Mohamed El-Sayed

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"No to bequeathing the presidency, no to the extension of Mubarak's rule, no to the emergency law": so chanted members of Kifaya (the Egyptian Movement for Change) in front of the Supreme Court in downtown Cairo during their first anti-Mubarak demonstration, which took place in 2004. Five years on one of the movement's founders, Hani Anan, dropped a bombshell last week when he told a TV programme that he could see himself supporting Gamal Mubarak should he decide to stand as a presidential candidate.

"I would support Gamal Mubarak's nomination as long as Article 77 of the constitution, which allows the president to be re-elected for an unlimited number of terms, is amended," Anan told the presenter of "Manchet" (Headline), aired on Thursday on ON TV satellite channel. "That someone from outside the regime comes to power has never happened before. Should it happen now a state of division would take place inside the government... which would be unacceptable to the Egyptian people who crave stability and seek to maintain the fragile margin of freedom they have gained."

Anan's announcement raised many eyebrows. Almost inevitably it has led to rumours he has entered into a deal with the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP).

Abdel-Halim Qandil, Kifaya's coordinator, categorically dismisses any suggestions the movement has come to some arrangement with the regime.

"Since its inception in 2004 Kifaya has rejected the continuation of the Mubarak family in power, whether this happens through extending Mubarak's rule or bequeathing the presidency," Qandil said in a statement published on the movement's website. "Anan has had no relation with the movement for the past couple of years. What he said about supporting Gamal Mubarak is a personal point of view."

Following his comments Anan himself was keen to stress he was no longer an active member of Kifaya. "This was very much a personal point of view," he pointed out.

George Ishaq, a member of Kifaya's coordinating committee, insists that "opposing the bequest of power" remains central to Kifaya's existence. "Kifaya was basically established on the basis of resisting the bequeathing of power by whatever means possible," he said, adding the movement attracted members because of this goal.

"I think Anan made a mistake right at the beginning by limiting Kifaya's position to a single individual [Gamal Mubarak]," said Amr Elchoubaki, an expert at the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies and former Kifaya member. "I was part of a reformist group inside the movement that did not agree with Anan and wanted broader pressure to be exerted on the regime."

Following its inception Kifaya played an important role in stimulating political activism. Before it was formed public opposition was unheard of. The movement has served as a model for other opposition movements, which gathered beneath its umbrella, including University Teachers for Change, Youth for Change and Artists for Change. Kifaya, which quickly became synonymous with street activism, inspired people from all walks of life to publicly express their objections to government policy.

After successfully serving as a crucible for different opposition forces Kifaya's political presence began to erode, starting in 2006 when many members left the movement and internal conflicts began to come to a head.

"Kifaya is popular protest movement and not a political party. It is normal that such a movement become active when there are important political events, and for it to be less active when there are no big events," says Ishaq. "Kifaya will bounce back in 2010 and 2011, regaining its earlier momentum," he predicted.

In July the movement announced the formation of the Egyptian Coalition for Change -- a grouping that brings together the 6 April Youth Movement, tax collectors and the Mahala Spinning and Weaving workers, alongside the would-be Al-Karama and Wasat political parties.

Such a move, says Elchoubaki, is symptomatic of Kifaya's drift to the left.

"The movement has played its role in paving the way towards a protest culture," he argues. "It served as a protesting voice that led to the rise of others, the tax collectors, spinning and weaving workers, bloggers etc. But now this role has come to an end."

Elchoubaki does not believe Kifaya is in any position to influence events as far as the future of the presidency is concerned. "The real conflict over who will be the next president is being conducted within the regime," he says.