Right turn

By Salama A Salama

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On the Forbes list of the 100 most influential people in the world, Angela Merkel comes fairly near the top, not far behind Barack Obama. For the past few years, her image has adorned the covers of international publications, especially when she showed skill in managing the recent economic crisis. She reined in bankers, tamed shrewd politicians, and put concern over the stock market into perspective. In brief, she kept a cool head when nerves were running high.

Merkel may not be the most attractive of women. Indeed, she's often likened to Margaret Thatcher, once known as the Iron Lady. Quiet and homely, this daughter of a clergyman has taken her conservative Christian Democratic Party into a coalition with the Socialist Democrats that ruled Germany for four years. She added poise and grace to the international scene, rising above the stupidity of Bush, handling the recklessness of Sarkozy, and smoothing off the gruffness of Brown.

Judging by appearances, Merkel may look like the woman next door, a teacher perhaps or a school principal. She grew up in communist East Germany and studied physics in East Berlin. But she never joined the Communist Party or subscribed to its ideas. She made her name in politics only after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the reunification of Germany.

Having won last week's general elections, Merkel plans to form a government with the right-of-centre Freedom Democratic Party. This tells us something about the current mood in Europe. Some may have predicted the fall of capitalism because of the financial crisis. Some expected governments to go back to socialist policies and market intervention. But at least in Germany, things are going in the other direction.

In fact, the Social Democrats seem to be losing ground in Europe, and leftist parties are on the wane. Now Merkel's new government is expected to follow economic policies that may not be in favour of the working class. She is likely to reduce unemployment benefits and welfare spending. And she favours a tax system that stimulates investment and exports. Interestingly enough, she is in favour of more reliance on nuclear power, a trend that environmentalists and Greens managed to reverse in the past.

Merkel is expected to lead Europe further to the right. Her alliance with Sarkozy and Berlusconi and the Christian Democrats across Europe is likely to grow stronger. Now that she no longer needs the Social Democrats to govern, she will ditch programmes for social welfare, the environment and gay rights.

The rise of the rightwing is likely to drive Labour from power in Britain. At one point, the Social Democrats of Europe will need to rally, perhaps in the same way the Democrats did in America, and claw their way back to power.

Europe's political map is likely to change, especially as small parties gain more clout and big parties lose the confidence of their traditional supporters. Extreme rightwing or leftwing parties are chipping away at the turf of Europe's main parties.

No one expects rightwing governments to ride out of the current economic difficulties. Unemployment and recession are going to persist. And Germany's commitment to send 4,000 more troops to Afghanistan has not only angered the German public, but also annoyed many across Europe.

As the international economy regains its health and Europe gets more rightwing, this will translate into more European support for Israel and a tougher stance on Iran. Cooperation with the Third World, as well as interest in its wellbeing, is going to suffer as well.