Fact and fiction

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In one of a series of many interviews the independent press has been publishing on Egypt's 2011 presidential elections, one famous poet proclaimed the obvious: "Mubarak is the next president."

Not only is this the sole possible outcome since the 2005 constitutional amendments that purported to allow for multi-candidate presidential elections, it is also the conclusion that any news editor touting an "election debate" now must have arrived at. And yet those lengthy interviews, analyses, and pontificating have suddenly become the dominant concern of the Egyptian press, followed by TV evening talk shows that create perfectly contrived debate on an election that will take place two years from now.

In interview with Al-Masry Al-Yom last week, Egypt's leading journalist, Mohamed Hassanein Heikal, proposed a vision for a temporary transitional period, where the constitution could be rewritten, as a prelude to a peaceful rotation of power in Egypt. The interview and suggestion provoked endless reactions from official quarters but, interestingly, no reaction from the public or the opposition, the latter being hard to define at present. Other newspapers were fast to chime in, keen on upping the stakes of the presidential debate narrative.

A respected heavyweight like Heikal certainly measures his words and timing, which begs the question: Does he believe that his vision is, given political realities, applicable?

One might wonder if this is just a reflection of an elitist preoccupation, or merely an attempt by newspapers to increase circulation or compete with each other as their contrived debate rages on.

In the midst of this high-browed talk, a real and serious tragedy occurred when two trains in Ayyat district south of Cairo collided, killing at least 18 and injuring 36. Because it's not the first such accident (in 2002 at least 360 passengers were burned to death on a train; in 2006 approximately 58 people were killed in a train accident and another 44 died in a similar train disaster last year) it immediately stirred public rage at the establishment's corruption and incompetence.

What makes this last train tragedy especially infuriating is that it comes after an intense government sponsored TV ad campaign throughout Ramadan, on the "millions of pounds" injected by the Transport Ministry into the railway sector for its improvement. The ad warned that all would be well if Egyptians would stop breaking windows, tearing leather chairs and stealing free rides. This condescending message from the government to the people, and the tragic accident of last week, are only an example of the lived reality of the vast majority of Egyptians; a sliver of their suffering, of their challenges and concerns.

The minister of transport did the only acceptable -- albeit belated -- thing by resigning Tuesday, but given the entrenchment of corruption and incompetence in the system, he is already viewed as a scapegoat. Very few Egyptians believe things will change after his departure. Even fewer believe in the presidential debate that continues to flood the press, with its promises of drama and contest.