Second guessing

Conflict is a dangerous game for business in southern Sudan, surmises Gamal Nkrumah

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On a two-day visit to Cairo, First Vice-President of Sudan and President of Southern Sudan Salva Kiir Mayardit focussed discussions with Egyptian officials on mutual relations as well as the resolution of conflicts in Sudan, including those raging in southern Sudan and Darfur. He stressed that current conflicts raging in Sudan are a poor gauge for the progress of peaceful reconciliation in Sudan.

Peace in Sudan relates to stability in Southern Sudan. The issues of vital concern to the government of Southern Sudan are social cohesion, poverty alleviation, reconstruction and the rehabilitation of the war-weary population and displaced people and refugees. While fighting between north and south this year resulted in only 24 deaths, that between factions within the south resulted in the death of thousands. The infighting within the south can lead to distortions of policy and unsustainable growth. It can also create perverse incentives and hamper the wellbeing of Sudanese society as a whole.

The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) which ended more than two decades of civil war in Sudan stipulates that the entire country is to hold general elections in April 2010 before a referendum for the self-determination of southern Sudan scheduled for April 2011.

Relations between the two peace partners who signed the 2005 CPA -- the northern-based National Congress Party (NCP) of Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir and the southern-based Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) -- have had ups and down since the signing of the agreement. And, Kiir hinted that many southern Sudanese are disgruntled about the pace of the Sudanese peace process and the lack of realisation of peace dividends. "Southern Sudan may split from the north of the country in the upcoming referendum because unity has become unattractive."

The two parties were reported to have recently struck a deal on a referendum bill that permits the people of Southern Sudan to establish an independent state by a simple majority vote of 50 plus one percentage as long as 66 per cent (two- thirds) of all eligible registered voters turnout.

Kiir said that it was impossible to prejudge the outcome of the referendum. Some leaders of the SPLM object to the bill and in particular the quorum of 66 per cent turnout. "There is hope that Sudan may stay united if the other party [the NCP] is serious," Kiir said.

Until the NCP fulfils its side of the coalition agreement and relinquishes its stranglehold of the key sectors of the economy, army and police, then the unity of Sudan may be in jeopardy. The current CPA arrangement is riddled with imperfections. The leaders of Sudan must be held accountable for the political and economic developments in the country. It is, after all, the task of these leaders to formulate and articulate the goals and aspirations of the Sudanese people and to present them to the voters.

The Southern Sudanese president was up against critics of the CPA for not being persistent in tightening the rules and closing its loopholes. However, Kiir dismissed such allegations as preposterous. His government in Southern Sudan, he noted, was faced with tremendous problems and had a major task of reconstruction and development at hand.

Balance sheet strength on the democratisation process continues to assume renewed importance on the Sudanese political scene, which in turn will determine whether it is better for the southern Sudanese people to be an independent state or remain part of Sudan. The CPA, if properly adhered to, would ensure the development and facilitate the prosperity and political stability of Sudan. It also makes clear the scope for improving development policy and democratic debate in the country.

At any rate, investors from Asia, especially China, and to a lesser degree the Arab Gulf states are winnowing their investments in Sudan, separating the wheat from the chaff, and focussing on the most lucrative industries and agri- businesses.

Opinion is divided in Sudan as to whether the new influx of investments in Sudan, while breaking ground by strengthening the Sudanese economy is likely by itself to set off sustainable development and a real improvement in the living standards of the ordinary Sudanese people. An economic growth spiral is most welcome, but what is sorely needed is a better quality of life for the impoverished majority of the Sudanese people.

Kiir also explained that the main reason for the conflicts currently raging in Southern Sudan is that the lack of implementation of the CPA which exacerbates the infighting among southern factions. The economic impact of the conflict in Southern Sudan could be enormous.

In the meantime, development assistance could and should be channelled whenever possible through the authorities in Southern Sudan, the SPLM contends. Aid agencies and non- governmental organisations must also be involved in the development process, in part because they choose to work directly with the government of Southern Sudan as opposed to the central Sudanese government in Khartoum. "We are making a lot of difference and this needs to be appreciated," Kiir told Al-Ahram Weekly.

He also stressed that there is no way that the deadline for the referendum will be extended. He stressed that the onus for implementing the unity of Sudan must fall on the central government. "It is all in the hands of the Government of National Unity in Khartoum," he said. "The ball is now in the court of Khartoum."

Still, he is viewed more favourably than his rivals by the powers-that-be in the Sudanese capital. His relations with neighbouring countries and Western donors are surprisingly good, despite the in-fighting and accusations of failure to deliver any economic benefits six years after he took office.

Kiir is concerned about the growing resentment in many quarters of the sprawling autonomous region. This beleaguered president has his enemies in the south itself. He is viewed more favourably among his own ethnic Dinka people.

The uneven impact of Sudan's oil revenue between north and south is yet another bone of contention. The north, or rather Khartoum, is still regarded as the major beneficiary of Sudan's newfound oil wealth. Mismatches of this magnitude only aggravate the political situation in Sudan, increasing tensions between northerners and southerners. Kiir and his supporters claim their hands are tied as Khartoum is pocketing the oil wealth. His critics contend that he is actually in league with them. There is a need for real transparency.