Taking a different tack

Egypt is confident it can iron out its differences with upstream Nile countries, somehow, Dina Ezzat reports

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It might take a year or so and an aggressive drive of investment and patient political engagement, but Egypt believes it can end its dispute with upstream Nile countries over their demands to recalibrate traditional shares of Nile water.

This assessment is based on the outcome of intensive talks Egyptian officials have been holding with upstream Nile country counterparts. "What they have been telling us is largely positive," one concerned official said.

What is positive, according to the Egyptian reading, is that upstream officials insist they have no intention of harming Egyptian interests and that they are aware Egypt is almost fully dependent on Nile water for the purposes of irrigation, electricity generation and providing potable water.

What is also positive about what Egyptian officials have been hearing is that the call to recalibrate traditional shares is prompted by the desire of the countries concerned to develop to meet the needs of expanding populations.

This Egypt finds legitimate and not necessarily dependent on Nile water. As such Egypt is hoping it can work with the countries concerned to help them maximise the use of their share of Nile water to produce electricity and irrigate land not watered by the heavy rains most of these countries enjoy.

Thus Egypt, according to one informed source, is preparing "a special budget" to invest in water management in concerned upstream Nile countries. It is also communicating with international donors on projects they could finance in upstream countries.

"The response we are getting is relatively promising," commented one official. "But it would be inaccurate to suggest that upstream countries are welcoming us unconditionally, or that international donors are completely committed to coordinate with us," he added.

Some Egyptian officials are willing to acknowledge the validity of some complaints made by African diplomats -- not just those of upstream Nile countries -- that the Egyptian attitude towards these countries has been presumptuous and maybe even chauvinistic. Egypt's 55 billion cubic metres per year share was decided by an agreement signed in the early 20th century with Britain when most countries of the Nile Basin were under colonial occupation.

"Your officials have been dealing with us in a way that we can no longer accept. And if Egypt does not care for Africa now, then Africa would not care for Egypt," commented one African diplomat on condition of anonymity.

This diplomat complained about the limited number of visits Egyptian officials pay to African states, the lack of coverage of African news in the Egyptian media, and the language some Egyptian officials and parliamentarians used in the wake of the signing -- by most upstream Nile states -- of the New Framework Agreement in May that revised the traditional quota system for Nile Basin states.

President Hosni Mubarak, one senior Egyptian official said, issued clear directives that only a few senior officials should be entrusted with making statements on developments in this issue. The president also insisted, according to the same official, that he would not tolerate provocative language.

"Our message is not that we will get our share no matter what. Our message is that we need this share and we are willing to work with concerned states to make sure that our sustainable access to this share does not in any way undermine their access to development," stated the senior official.

Upstream country sources suggest there is a change in the "tone of Egyptian language", as made clear in the discourse adopted by the Egyptian delegation to a routine meeting of ministers of water and irrigation of Nile Basin countries held earlier this week in Addis Ababa.

But are these countries convinced? The answer is more no than yes. Scepticism still prevails on whether or not the new Egyptian line is indicative of a new approach or is simply "cosmetic" and short term. Moreover, the countries seem convinced that Egypt can tolerate some loss of share to help these countries launch their development schemes.

"These projects are not just about the know-how of better water management, but also about the volume of water you need," commented another source from upstream countries.

For its part, Egypt seems determined to steer clear of provocation and promote cooperation. This is the basic message that Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit and Minister of State for International Cooperation Fayza Abul-Naga will take next week to Ethiopia -- the country that provides the largest share of Nile water to Egypt. It is also the message General Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman conveyed recently to top Ugandan officials. (see p.2)