Damage control

As the deadline for the referendum on independence for southern Sudan approaches, fears are growing that the country could be dragged back to war, writes Dina Ezzat

---

"We are no longer talking about whether it will happen but about how to make it happen in a way, and at a time, that reduces the chances of instability for the whole of Sudan." Such is the take of one senior Egyptian official on the upcoming referendum on secession for southern Sudan.

Egypt has set up a special unit, affiliated to the Foreign Ministry, to promote relations with the south of Sudan. It has increased the budget for investment and technical aid to the south of Sudan and the exchange of visits between Egyptian and southern Sudan officials, whether announced or un-announced, has been on the increase.

An independent southern Sudan will divide Egypt's immediate backyard. It is a scenario Egyptian officials fear could bring more instability and intensify water disputes among the Nile Basin countries.

Scheduled to take place in January, the referendum was a central component of the Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement, signed less than six years ago, after a brutal two- decade war between the north and south. It included a clause calling on all parties to work towards making the choice of unity attractive for the people of southern Sudan. The Khartoum regime -- predominantly Islamist -- and Arab countries, predominantly in favour of the continued unity of Sudan, failed to act on the clause. The result according to Arab, Western, African and Chinese diplomats, is that the south will vote overwhelmingly for independence.

"We have a big mission in Juba which we are expending. We are working very hard to be ready to turn it into a proper embassy next year after the [expected] vote for independence," said a Chinese diplomat based in Juba.

Concerned diplomats, including Egyptians, say the Khartoum regime has done little to persuade southerners of the benefits of unity.

In Khartoum, some officials now admit that unity is no longer a top priority.

"Realistically, we know that the cause of unity is defeated and that it is too late to change things. We have other pressing issues, including the situation in Darfur and the [International Criminal Court's] allegations against President [Omar] Al-Bashir," said a source at Sudan's Foreign Ministry. "Let them have their independence. They will soon come back. They cannot survive on their own."

Strip such comments of their chauvinism and the Foreign Ministry source is making a point shared by many concerned bodies, both governmental and non-governmental. The south, they say, is basically unprepared for statehood, lacking the basic infrastructure, trade access, ports and air terminals that are essential to any independent state.

A report issued over the weekend by 24 non-governmental organisations, stated that Sudan is "alarmingly unprepared" for independence.

In a press release launching Renewing the Pledge: Re-engaging the Guarantors of the Sudanese Comprehensive Peace Agreement, the global coalition warns: "The clock is ticking fast towards what might be the most important date in modern Sudanese history -- two referenda in Sudan that are likely to result in the breakup of Africa's largest state."

The second referendum will determine whether the oil rich area of Abyei will join Southern Sudan. A decision to secede could, diplomats warn, trigger a new civil war.

"An ill-prepared referendum threatens to take Sudan back to war. The international community, and specifically Arab governments and the League of Arab States, must now capitalise on the opportunity provided by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and ensure that a free and fair referendum occurs next year, in order for peace to prevail in Sudan," says Haggag Nayel, secretary-general of the Arab Coalition for Darfur.

"An agreement to share the revenues from oil was instrumental in achieving peace between north and south Sudan. As preparations begin for the referendum and possible Southern independence, it will be vital to resolve pending issues around oil in order to avert a return to war," says Rosie Sharpe from Global Witness, a member of the international coalition that issued the report.

The coalition insists that the purpose of its report is not to call for the referendum to be delayed. The objective is to get all concerned parties to take the political action necessary to make the problems that independence will inevitably bring more manageable.

Stabilising the situation between the north and south is a tough challenge, but it is not the only one. Management of the situation in Darfur is also crucial, say concerned diplomats.

Speaking in Cairo on Monday following talks with Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa, Mustafa Othman Ismail, an adviser to the Sudanese president, promised that the political quagmire afflicting Darfur will end sooner rather than later. But while Ismail spoke of "positive signs" for a peaceful settlement, diplomatic sources that took part in the recent round of Doha negotiations on Darfur suggest otherwise.

Meanwhile, in a report published this week, Amnesty International has accused the Sudanese authorities of using systematic torture against its opponents.

Sudanese sources say the International Criminal Court's decision to add genocide to the list of charges levelled against the Sudanese president has made the situation more "tense" and is encouraging even greater abuses.

"Violence has intensified in Darfur and human rights are being trampled in the north," warns the international coalition on Sudan.

"If you ask me whether or not we know that we will wake up in January next year to a very challenging situation in Sudan, with the country divided and the regime being challenged, my answer to you would be yes, we are aware of the problem," said one Egyptian diplomat. Egypt is doing "what it can", he continued, working with concerned regional and international players to minimise the dangers.