Iranians recalculate

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Is there an Iranian foreign policy, or is Iran's foreign policy a mere reflection of the country's internal power struggle?

It is tempting to answer the question in the negative, and not just with regards to Iran. Other countries in the region -- Egypt, Israel and Turkey included -- seem to fashion their foreign policy after the domestic power play. The Iranians seem split into two groups that share nothing in common except the ideal of the Islamic republic, and even this ideal is now questionable. It is not clear what Iran is now. Is it a religiously inspired democracy or a democratically inspired theocracy?

The dominance of internal considerations over foreign policy is clear in two instances. One is the debate about Iran's nuclear programme. There is a fair amount of contradiction and wavering in the positions of Iranian leaders on the matter. At first, it made sense that Iranian leaders would send out mixed messages in order to gain time while their scientists pressed ahead with whatever they were doing. But now this doesn't sound right, for most Iranian leaders seem to be changing their minds too often. This goes too for Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president who is known for his impatience with diplomacy and disregard for concessions.

Late last year, Ahmadinejad seemed about to accept the Western-Russian deal on uranium enrichment. He maintained this stance until a few days ago when he defiantly ordered his country's atomic agency to start producing 20 per cent enriched uranium. Why has Ahmadinejad made this turnabout?

We know the Iranian president didn't act thus because of any foreign policy considerations. He must know that his actions would undermine his country's relations with Russia, and even China. And he knows that the West will respond with sanctions. So why did he do it? Most likely because it puts him ahead in the internal power struggle.

Another instance of Iranian foreign policy has to do with its substantial financial aid to its allies in the Arab world: Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas. Recently, Iran began cutting back on financial aid to Arab friends. This happened in response to large demonstrations by the Iranian opposition in which marchers chanted slogans such as, "Iran first, not Lebanon and not Gaza."

No one knows how far the cuts will go. The total sum of financial aid remains a secret. But there are signs, in Syria particularly, that cuts have started. Now Iran is poised to face new and tougher sanctions, perhaps in the next two months. This and the fact that the Iranian parliament is cutting back subsidies on essential goods at home means that Iran cannot afford to be splashing money around overseas.

The current shift in Iranian foreign policy is perhaps the most significant since the 1979 revolution. How will the West and Israel react to that shift? Before long, we'll find out.