On-again off-again

Progress towards peace and democracy is halting, but strong reasons for optimism remain, contends Gamal Nkrumah

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Sudanese President Al-Bashir smiles at JEM rebel leader Khalil Ibrahim in Doha after signing a ceasefire agreement. Qatar has promised to contribute $1 billion to help reconstruct the devastated region

Darfur may have been largely pacified, but it is far from being at peace. What was all the bloodshed about? There have been early jitters for the ceasefire agreement signed this week between the Sudanese government and the most powerful of Darfur's armed opposition groups -- the Justice and Equality Movement in the Chadian capital Ndjamena and later in oil and natural gas-rich Qatar. Sudan is no model of orderly progress, but a political turning point in the country's history is at hand.

Perceptions of an uncertain political future have fuelled a few ripples of concern among Sudan's African and Arab neighbours. Presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place next month. The Sudanese government has faced a barrage of criticism from Western powers and international human rights organisations over its human rights record. Nor are many Sudan analysts convinced by the much-heralded presidential polls.

Sudan is on the brink of radical political reform: a credible Darfur ceasefire agreement signed, free and fair presidential elections promised and a referendum on southern Sudanese secession in the cards. There are reasons for optimism.

The big question is whether the Sudanese ruling party is losing momentum in the wake of political reform. Not according to its supporters. Yet a woman presidential hopeful was barred from running for the country's top post simply because she is a female -- the wrong sex for a head of state according to the country's leading Islamist jurists. Sudan's National Elections Committee (NEC) barred the only woman nominee in the Sudanese presidential election from standing in the April elections.

The NEC's decision however was overturned by the Sudanese Supreme Court, which ruled that the woman was wrongly excluded by the NEC. "This decision was fair and proves that there is justice," declared Fatma Mahmoud, presidential candidate of the Democratic Socialist Union Party. Twelve candidates are now running for presidency in Sudan's April elections. This is yet further proof that in spite of a shaky start, the nascent Sudanese democracy is gearing up for take-off.

Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir cited the southern Sudanese people's right to secede if they so wish in a high-minded speech in Khartoum on the eve of the signing of a ceasefire truce between Khartoum and its main antagonist in Darfur. These are momentous times for the Sudanese people. The politics of their country is poised to have an about-face. "Peace will prevail in Darfur before the coming elections," Al-Bashir pledged before jubilant crowds of supporters in Khartoum.

However, not all is sunny. Two days after the signing of the Ndjamena ceasefire agreement JEM reported that government troops attacked its forces. The Sudanese government denied the JEM claims.

Sudan's ruling Party, the National Congress Party (NCP) has no room for complacency. The Sudanese people are now ready to turf out an inadequate government, and NCP stalwarts understand the implications of this new mood gripping the country. Sudanese leaders must demonstrate that they have more to do than utter lofty rhetoric. The Sudanese people's desire to transform the country into a vibrant democracy is now unstoppable.

Are approval ratings for Al-Bashir's NCP failing? Not necessarily. The issuing of an arrest warrant for President Al-Bashir by the International Criminal Court based in The Hague, Netherlands, actually boosted the president's popularity ratings in certain constituencies. And the NCP has finally started making a real policy impact in the country after years of political vacuum and civil war.

Everything points to the likelihood that Sudan is poised to strengthen its democractisation process. On the one hand, the ruling party has members, all Islamists, but from a broad range of backgrounds, social classes, tribal and ethnic groups. These politicians have made much political capital out of serving the Sudanese state. However, there are others who are waiting in the wings and who are eager to gain experience of government. Will they be given a chance?

There are too many questions and the Sudanese people are awaiting answers. The Chadian president and his Eritrean counterpart Isaias Afeworki together with Qatar Emir Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani witnessed the signing ceremony for the ceasefire last week. JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim expressed his optimism about the end of war in Darfur but warned that his party will insist on high-profile ministerial portfolios in any "power-sharing" deal with the Sudanese government.

Another major Darfur armed opposition group the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) rejected the Doha deal. Meanwhile, JEM concurred with the SLA that the election should be postponed as the security situation in Darfur is still tense and will hinder the registration of voters.

The Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) which shares power with the NCP is also pushing for a postponement of the elections. The issue has become a focus of the opposition to Al-Bashir's regime. "We need a new political paradigm that is persuasive and in line with the aspirations of our people," SPLM presidential candidate Yasser Arman told Al-Ahram Weekly.