Looming disputes

With few options in hand, Egypt insists on its historic rights over Nile waters, Reem Leila reports

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The ordinary meeting of the Nile Council of Ministers (Nile-COM), composed of the nine member states that share Nile water resources, failed to reach agreement in the Ugandan capital of Entebbe last Thursday. Upstream countries confirmed their insistence on signing the Cooperative Framework Convention (CFC) agreement regarding equitable utilisation of Nile waters without necessarily involving Egypt and Sudan. The seven upstream countries set 14 May 2010 as the beginning date for the signing process that will be left open until April 2011.

The River Nile, the world's longest trans- border artery linking nine African countries, has become a major concern for the nations that share its waters. The distribution of the Nile's waters has been a source of dispute and strained relations for many decades. According to the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), at the Nile-COM meeting members emphasised the importance of a "united Basin" approach to managing the River Nile, to ensure the most effective development of the river for the people of Nile-COM member states.

Egypt and Sudan, who object to the CFC agreement, are currently conducting shuttle diplomacy at the presidential level in order to reach a compromise solution before 14 May. Egypt opposed Item B of Article 14 of the proposed CFC agreement that relates to historical water rights and uses. According to a statement issued by the secretariat of the NBI, during the Nile-COM meeting, Burundi, Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda agreed that regarding the signing procedure, the door would remain open to join the CFC in case the two downstream countries (Egypt and Sudan) change their minds.

Essam Khalifa, official spokesman of the Egyptian Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources, pointed out that the CFC proposal reflects the opinion of only seven countries. "Sudan and Egypt, which currently holds the rotating Nile Council of Ministers chairmanship, had introduced a new proposal to all Nile Basin countries to launch the Nile River Basin Commission to reach a comprehensive agreement," Khalifa stated. Through this commission Egypt will offer technical support to upstream nations. "We will not sign on to any agreement that does not clearly state and acknowledge our historical rights," said Khalifa, quoting Egyptian Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources Nasreddin Allam.

The proposal of the two downstream countries was refused by upstream countries that claim it was but an attempt to delay signing the CFC agreement. Khalifa, who denied this charge, said that Egypt would not be affected by upstream states signing a final agreement, and that more negotiations would follow to settle the issue.

Desperate for development, upstream nations are hoping to break with past arrangements, threatening to shut regional heavyweight Egypt out of a new pact and potentially deepening an already bitter struggle for water resources across the parched region. According to Diaa El-Qousi, an expert in River Nile affairs, what happened in the recent meetings constitutes a "crisis" in Egypt's relations with Nile Basin countries.

In Egypt, Nile waters feed a farm sector accounting for a third of all jobs. Unlike upstream nations, Egypt cannot rely on rain and gets 97 per cent of its water from the River Nile. Climate change -- in particular rising sea levels -- could also swallow much of the slim, fertile Nile Delta.

"Practically, even if those countries sign a framework agreement without Egypt, its effects won't be lasting. How will upstream countries stop the flow of water? They would drown if they attempted to do so," El-Qousi said. "It is premature to say they will build dams so we will lose water and Egypt's agriculture will be seriously affected," he said.

Indeed, international donor countries and the World Bank (WB) are unlikely to provide finance to build upstream water projects for fear of getting entangled in a regional diplomatic -- and possibly military -- spat.

Experts believe that the new commission will help in increasing land reclamation projects and help attract foreign investment in source country farmland. Egypt should not seek to stick to historic water treaties; it should focus on bilateral talks with each country or take its case to international arbitration, El-Qousi said. "We need more holistic policies, including other policy areas branching into economic, cultural, and political ties," he added.

In an attempt to reduce wastewater, Egypt has recently reduced areas of land cultivated with water-intensive crops like rice. "There is also a 47 per cent drop in maize output," El-Qousi said.

Commenting on El-Qousi's reasoning, Khalifa stated that resorting to international arbitration is not on the minds of politicians for the time being. "The whole issue could be amicably resolved with a little bit of understanding regarding the needs of the conflicting parties," Khalifa said.