Issue No.1150, 29 May, 2013      29-05-2013 02:32PM ET

Dampening disputes

Ethiopia’s decision to divert the course of the Blue Nile leaves Egypt and Sudan on the back foot, writes Reem Leila

Dampening disputes
The Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam (GERD), under construction, but almost completed, has caused much consternation in Egypt. Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood’s Renaissance Project in Egypt is equally troubling for many Egyptians. The two grandiose Renaissance projects, much to the chagrin of many Egyptians, come at a time of social unrest and political instability. Ethiopia claims that the GERD i
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Immediately following President Mohamed Morsi’s meeting with Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn Addis Ababa announced that it would begin diverting the course of the Blue Nile. Morsi had met Desalegn on 28 May during the course of the African Union summit to discuss the impact of the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam project on Egypt’s share of Nile water. The diversion of the Blue Nile is part of the process required to build the Renaissance Dam which many water experts believe will severely reduce Egypt’s share of Nile water.

The announcement was described by Ethiopian officials as “historic”. Addis Ababa held a celebration on Tuesday morning at the construction site of the Renaissance Dam, planned to be the 10th largest in the world. 

Both Egypt and Sudan were surprised by the news, but while Sudan described the decision as “shocking”, believing it will negatively affect their quota of Nile water, Egypt’s presidential spokesman Omar Amer told the press that the decision taken by the Ethiopian government would not impact on Egypt’s share. Meanwhile, Egyptian water experts criticised Egypt’s official reaction and expressed alarm.

Nasreddin Allam, former water resources and irrigation minister, pointed out that the Renaissance Dam is one of four dams which Ethiopia plans to construct on the Blue Nile, one of two main tributaries that provide Egypt with 60 per cent of its annual share of 55.5 billion cubic metres of water.

“The storage capacity of the Renaissance Dam is 200 billion cubic metres. Add to this the capacity of the Takazi Dam work on which began in 2009 and one can foresee a situation in which Ethiopia will control the amount of water coming to Egypt and Sudan,” argues Allam. The Takazi Dam is on the Stet River, the other tributary of the River Nile.

Ethiopia, says Allam, plans to construct four dams for irrigation purposes that are also capable of generating 2,000 megawatts of electricity, nine times the amount produced by Egypt’s High Dam. This is in addition to 25,000 megawatts planned to be produced by other rivers in Ethiopia.

“Ethiopia will be the biggest exporter and controller of energy in East Africa. It will soon be exporting energy to Somalia and Djibouti in the east, Kenya and Uganda in the south, Sudan and South Sudan in the west, and to Egypt and Europe in the north,” said Allam.

Hani Raslan, head of the Sudan and Nile Basin Countries’ Studies Programme at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, says that following the Ethiopian announcement, “Egypt can expect to lose at least seven billion cubic metres of its share of water once the Grand Renaissance Dam is finished.” 

The River Nile is the confluence of the White Nile, with its source in Lake Victoria, and the Blue Nile which springs in the Ethiopian highlands. It provides 90 per cent of the water needs of Egypt’s 90 million inhabitants. Water experts say that even if Egypt’s share remains constant population growth will outstrip existing water supplies by 2017.

Ibrahim Nasreddin of Cairo University’s Institute for African Studies says alarm is unnecessary. The recent decision taken by Addis Ababa will not affect Egypt and Sudan since “the Nile can provide enough water for all of the countries that depend on it.”

“The depth of the Nile’s course in source countries, especially in Ethiopia, is 500 metres deep. This makes it impossible to build anything similar to the High Dam in just 10 months. But without building in such a compressed timetable anything that is constructed will be flushed away by the annual two-month flood.”

Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources Mohamed Bahaaeddin agrees with Nasreddin’s assessment. The construction processwill take a great deal of time, he says. Meanwhile, the diversion process will not stop water from flowing down river to Egypt.

Bahaaeddin adds that this does not mean that Egypt approves of the construction of the dam.

“We are still waiting for the outcome of the tripartite commission,” he says, adding that the commission, mandated to report on the impact of the dam, is due to report in the next few days. Egypt’s position, says Bahaaeddin, is that it opposes the dam’s construction if it is shown it will negatively impact on Egypt’s water share.

Bahaaeddin also stresses the crisis of water management in Egypt. “We cannot afford to waste a single drop of water,” he says.

Egypt’s position, Bahaaeddin reiterated, is that it does not oppose “any development constructed in any Nile Basin country” as long as it does not “damage the downstream countries of Egypt and Sudan”.

A report issued by the National Planning Institute (NBI) calculates that Egypt will need an additional 21 billion cubic metres by 2050 in order to meet the water needs of a population of 150 million.

The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), signed by most Nile Basin countries and opposed only by Egypt and Sudan, ratified a partnership among Nile states for sharing the river’s socio-economic benefits and promoting regional security. The conflict between Sudan and Egypt (downstream states) and the rest of Nile Basin countries (upstream countries) began when Cairo and Khartoum refused to sign the NBI Framework Convention since it did not explicitly guarantee Egypt’s right to 55.5 billion cubic square metres of water annually and did not allow Egypt its traditional veto of upstream projects.

Shares of Nile water are based on several principles. According to Raslan, the share of any country must be in proportion to its population and extent of agricultural land. Nile Basin countries should also desist from harming any neighbouring country.

An international dispute will develop between Egypt and other Nile Basin countries should they refuse to alter their position. According to Raslan, there are not many alternatives. “Other than political and diplomatic negotiations and international arbitration, the only remaining option will be the use of force,” says Raslan.

Egypt has set three conditions before signing the Nile Basin Framework Agreement: water security, being informed in advance of any planned projects on the river banks and making the completion of such projects conditional on Egyptian and Sudanese approval.”

“We have water and won’t need to think about securing outside water till five or six years from now. We have an adequate amount of water to fulfil our needs for now,” says Bahaaeddin.

Sudanese Ambassador to Cairo Kamal Hassan is far less sanguine. He described Ethiopia’s decision to divert the course of Blue Nile as “disastrous”. Egypt and Sudan, he says, might resort to the Arab League to discuss the issue.

“There is continuous communication between Egypt and Sudan over Ethiopia’s shocking decision,” says Hassan.

“The decision was abrupt and traumatising. We are currently discussing the possibility of conducting an Arab League emergency meeting in order to discuss the threat to Egypt and Sudan’s share of Nile water.”

 

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Comments

ERIPRO wrote:

06-06-2013 05:31am

Egyptian rights
It is international norms any two or more countries to share their water resources when the water flows from one to the other. In case of Ethiopia there was no consultation or treaty with the Sudan or the state of Egypt. It was primarily decided unilaterally with no regard to neighboring countries and their livelihoods. I don’t see any reason why Egypt cannot and will not use military confrontation with Ethiopia when the country’s existence is on danger. Ethiopian government is corrupt ethnic based bunch of thieves mostly tigrayans. They are willing to serve with some powerful right wing westerners to destroy Egypt. Their plan is not to implement it in the next 15 plus years. It is a long planned and has to be given different names, like the rise of Africa, African renaissance and more non-senses. Ethiopia is one of the nations that gets billions of dollars from the west so that it can implement their agendas or do their dirty jobs. That is why Ethiopia attacked Eritrea claiming border

Damtew wrote:

05-06-2013 12:33pm

Be with your Mind!
You Egyptians never drum any more the drum of war. Because history does not support you to win rather to lose.Should you think of dropping a bomb in the dam it is ok we will drop .... to contaminate the water and we will see who will survive!

Asmie wrote:

05-06-2013 01:04am

Think over It
It is untimely and old-fashioned politics to follow the 1929 agreement which states that the upper basin countries should not use even a cup of water from the river Nile. It is time now to share Nile water on win-win principle. Solely speaking the GRD project doesn't have any effect to Egypt and Sudan (as its purpose is to generate power) but it brings about regional integration.

Addis wrote:

04-06-2013 08:07pm

What is Shocking?
After Egyptian diplomats including their experts have been part of the team experts to study the impact of the dam including contributing money for this. And after all the back and forth diplomacy why are the Egyptian and the Sudanese governments shocked of the news? After all the colonial era has ended and every sovereign nation has the right to build its economy. Wake up and and join the Black African Renaissence era for mutual benefit.

vampires wrote:

04-06-2013 04:39pm

Sem
In Egypt people are very concerned about it because we already have shortage of water. Hunger is major problem as 45 percent of the population is under poverty and our middle class lifestyle is considered the poorest compared to other countries. If water is addded to the problem, it will be a disaster .I wish no problem happen .

Gebre wrote:

04-06-2013 10:33am

military option?
Dear Egyptians, make no mistake. Air power and mechanised forces do not determine the outcome of war. In the 21st Century, everything is a weapon including water itself. So, you need to consider military option off the table.

Gebre wrote:

04-06-2013 09:49am

Dampening disputes
I Observe two types of Egyptians with regard to the Nile issue. some in the Egyptian elites are very emotional, nasty nationalists who have little respect for black Africans along the Nile valley. Others are rational, who think and react respectfully to others. The second category are ready to engagge positively with us who live in the upper side of the Nile. I hope, these are the very people who at the end achieve the legitimate right of the Egyptian people. The first category are insisting military option over negotiation simply because they think Egypt is uncontested military power and can achieve whatever she want. But, I would argue that Egypt will not achieve its interest through military means unless it decides to establish military garisons in all the upper Nile countries to control its water security 24/7. I think, this is next to impposible. Rather, military option will spur more reations. Retaliation and counter retaliation will persist for many years to come. So, it is bett

Misgina Adhanom wrote:

03-06-2013 05:31pm

Equity
The Blue Nile water is going to be used by Ethiopians not g. We need to use it because it is our resource. Of course, the downstream countries also have the right to use it. Therefore, it is true that we can construct dams as much as we can.

Getasew wrote:

03-06-2013 03:11pm

Baby don't worry
The 1929 agreement which gave much of the water share to Egypt is too old to implement at this time..come on...its 2013 Egyptians..this damn dam will not affect u...believe me...lets share it and see in 2030 Ethiopia and Egypt become the two superpowers of Africa.

ERIPRO wrote:

02-06-2013 09:22pm

DAM
Ethiopian claim about building a huge dam and diverting Nile waters for the purpose of economic gains is a pure nonsense.It is a political game aimed at choking Egypt. I am not talking about conspiracy, it is based on fact.The late dictator Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia was bitter about Arab support to Ethiopian opposition groups,state of Eritrea and all who oppose him.In many occasions he mentioned Qatar,Egypt,Eritrea and many other Arab countries of trying to overthrow him.The purpose of building the dam is to dry up Egypt and make it kneel on it knees and beg for mercy. Believe me if Egypt is thinking Ethipian govenment is going to play by treaties and International laws, Egypt must be day dreaming or being fooled.Not long ago Ethiopia and Eritrea went to international courts to demarcate their borders and there was a final ruling in 2001,but Ethiopian government refused to abide by the ruling

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