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Al-Ahram Weekly 29 Dec. 1994 - 4 Jan. 1995 Issue No. 201 
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Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Al-Ahram Weekly 29 Dec. 1994 - 4 Jan. 1995 Issue No. 201
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
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Charting untrodden ground
Nader Fergany, prominent statistician and director of Almishkat Centre for Research, explains the terms of reference, limitations and significance of this pioneering exercise
In democratic societies public opinion is carefully, and continuously, monitored.Accurate measurement of public opinion is, however, a complex professional activity that has strict scientific requirements. While erroneous measurement of public opinion can result in considerable damage, willful distortion of public opinion is a crime of societal proportions. It is with this understanding, and sense of responsibility, that the present pilot poll was approached.
Though the National Centre for Social and Criminological Research has been taking opinion polls for many years, quick polls on current issues that are published in the mass media, are not an established institution of Egyptian public life.
In developed countries, availability of computerized national sampling frames, general literacy and efficacy of telephone interviewing makes polls taking rather easy and quite efficient. In contrast, an infrastructure for quick opinion polls from nationally representative samples is not in place in Egypt. In addition, rampant illiteracy and the pervasive influence of the mass media raise serious conceptual, as well as measurement, issues in taking opinion polls in Egypt. In such a society, it is more scientific to speak of public sentiment rather than opinion.
The poll reported on here is strictly a pilot exercise. No claim is made that the results are representative of the Egyptian public at large. Rigorously, the results pertain to the sample interviewed whose characteristics are described in full later on.
Major Characteristics of Actual Sample
Characteristic
%
Educational status
illiterate
11
reads & writes
6
primary
6
preparatory
5
middle
34
university
37
Employment status
employed
70
not employed
30
Region of residence
Cairo or Alexandria
58
urban Lower Egypt
16
urban Upper Egypt
12
rural Lower Egypt
6
rural Upper Egypt
6
other
1
The poll was carried out in less than two weeks from inception to analysis, in itself a considerable achievement.
Through this pilot opinion poll, Al-Ahram Weekly is pioneering, quick opinion polls, which strive for rigour, by the press on important issues. It is hoped this will pave the road for more rigorous quick measurement of Egyptian public opinion and wide dissemination of the results.
The absence of a nationally representative sampling frame indicated an alternative, but approximate, approach. Respondents were selected by interviewers in the main waiting areas of the two main railway stations of Greater Cairo (Cairo and Giza). Rather than other public placed in Greater Cairo, the railway stations provide access to Egyptians residing in other regions of the country. The first location is the gateway to Lower Egypt, while the second is the gateway to Lower Egypt, while the second is the gateway to Upper Egypt. One third of the required sample was allocated to the second location (roughly Upper Egypt's share of the population).
Interviewing in railway stations, where a respondent is not conditioned by his usual social environment, has the advantage of encouraging free expression of opinion.
Interviewers were instructed to attempt to balance the composition of the samples of respondents by sex, age (in three wide-age groups: less than 30, 30-50, 50+) and apparent socio-economic status. However, data were collected to enable an objective classification of respondents by important socio-economic indicators.
The poll was designed to cover a relatively large sample, by the standards of quick opinion polls, of about 1,500 Egyptians, 18 years of age and older.
To reiterate, the sample, though strictly not representative of the entire Egyptian public, was designed to be large, and varied, enough to give good indications of the opinion of the population segments covered.
The instrument of the poll took the form of a questionnaire administered by an interviewer (more technically, an interview schedule). The questionnaire was developed through in-depth discussions and preliminary testing in a limited number of cases.
A penultimate version of the questionnaire was tested, under identical field conditions, on 40 cases and refined accordingly.
The questionnaire contained no information that could, directly or indirectly, lead to the identification of respondents. Neither name, exact address nor place of work was asked for, or even recorded when inadvertently mentioned by the respondent's willingness to freely express their opinions.
The final version of the questionnaire consisted of 24 main items asking for a mixture of fact and opinion: seven on personal characteristics, two on sources of information, five on regional and 10 on domestic issues.
In the interest of brevity, possible responses to opinion questions were limited to approval or non-approval as well as "no opinion". This is acceptable in quick opinion polls, published by the mass media, and helps sharpen the expression of opinions.
Interviewing was carried out by Al-Ahram Weekly reporters after being given training on interviewing techniques, respondent selection procedures and the instrument.
Interviews were to be taken at different times, ranging between 10am and 10pm, on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, days of relative high intensity of railway traffic, during 8-10 December 1994. The completed questionnaires were checked in the office, and electronically validated for errors and consistency responses.
Remarkably high response rates were recorded. Only four selected, respondents refused to complete the interview, starting with opinion questions, and their questionnaires were excluded. On questionnaire items, non-response averaged 1 per cent, were recorded in five items of domestic issues.
The actual sample consisted of 1,505 respondents, split among the three age groups (18 to less than 30, 30-50, 50+) in the proportions 39, 34 and 27 per cent. Women accounted for 44 per cent of the sample. Thus, on age and gender, the sample is approximately representative of the national structure. However, on educational attainment, employment and region of residence, the sample reflects considerably higher representation of the upper strata of society (see Table).
The lower strata of society are clearly relatively less mobile and hence stand at a lower chance of being met at main railway stations. However, the important implication for poll taking is that the upper strata of society are expected to have more crystallized opinions. In other works, the sample covered leans towards the more enlightened segments of Egyptians. As such, the results of the present poll represent lower, or upper, bounds on public opinion.
Judging by the proportion of the respondents who expressed no opinion on questionnaire items, the sample reveals a relatively high level of articulation of position vis-à-vis the issues raised. For six out of ten items, no opinion was expressed in 5 per cent or less of the cases. Opinions were relatively sharper with respect to relations with Israel, but less articulated in the case of peace process and Palestinian rights.
On two domestic issues, expression of opinion was almost universal: intention to vote in the next People's Assembly elections and position vis-à-vis violent Islamic groups. At the other extreme, the highest level of no opinion was recorded for the question: "What party or political current represents you?" Interestingly enough, on average, a relatively higher level of "no opinion" was expressed on domestic issues than on issues of attitude towards Israel.
As expected, educational attainment of respondents showed a significant influence on both the extent of articulation of opinion and the direction of position on the issues raised.
Higher education is shown to be generally associated with a more open attitude towards Israel, a higher level of frustration with domestic politics and less sympathy towards (non-violent) Islamic groups.
Yes to pluralism, no to violence
Related link: Almishkat Centre for Research
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