 |
Al-Ahram Weekly 29 Dec. 1994 - 4 Jan. 1995 Issue No. 201 
|
||
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
|
||
|
Al-Ahram Weekly 29 Dec. 1994 - 4 Jan. 1995 Issue No. 201
|
||
| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 |
|
||
Yes to pluralism, no to violence
A first-of-its-kind public opinion poll conducted by Al-Ahram Weekly indicates an overwhelming rejection of Islamist violence and substantial support for the principle of political pluralism. It also shows that the "psychological barrier" with Israel is still in place, and that, nearly two decades after the introduction of a multi-party system, a sense of political ennui continues to prevail. Hani Shukrallah reviews the results
Islamist violence was condemned by an overwhelming majority of Egyptians polled by Al-Ahram Weekly earlier this month in the first-of-its-kind quick opinion poll, which sampled the views of 1,505 men and women of different ages and educational attainments on a range of foreign and domestic issues. The respondents, who were randomly chosen, were interviewed in Greater Cairo's two main railway stations in Ramses Square and Giza, and the interviewers were strictly prohibited from asking questions that could reveal a respondent's identity.
The poll was co-supervised by prominent statistician and social scientist Nader Fergany, who acted as consultant to the Weekly on all aspects of the poll. The Almishkat Centre for Research and Training, headed by Fergany, provided technical backup. The poll was conducted by a group of 20 Weekly reporters over a three-day period.
Asked Whether Islamist groups which resort to violence work for the good of the people, 93 per cent of those polled said no , 3 per cent said yes , and 4 per cent felt they had no opinion on the subject.
This, however, was the only issue on which such an overwhelming agreement in public opinion was found. Questions relating to the currently burning issue of the normalisation of relations with Israel brought forth a more varied response, though they revealed that, for the majority of citizens, the so-called "psychological barrier"is still very much in place 15 years after the signing of the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. Asked whether they would buy Israeli goods, 71 per cent of the respondents said no , 26 per cent said yes, and only 3 per cent had no opinion. Such sentiments were expressed even more strongly on the question of possible Israeli factories in Egypt. Though the question deliberately emphasises a hypothetical form of economic interaction that is generally felt to be positive- industry- the greater majority of the respondents (75 per cent) said no to such an eventuality, compared to only 20 per cent who approved, while 5 per cent had no views on the matter.
Interestingly, there was more variation in views on the exchange of visits between Egyptians and Israelis- which seemed to indicate that the public was more opposed to formal, organised ties with the state of Israel than to interaction with individual Israelis. Asked whether they would be in favour of Israeli citizens visiting Egypt, 53 per cent of respondents said no, 43 per cent said yes and 4 per cent had no opinion. As to whether they themselves would like to visit Israel, a greater majority of 63 per cent said no, compared to 36 per cent who said yes , and 2 per cent who did not express a view.
Neither did the majority of those polled express much faith in the current peace agreements between Israel and the Palestinians restoring Palestinian rights. There was no exact correspondence, however, between the respondent's views on normalisation with Israel and those on whether a solution of the Palestinian question was being achieved through the current peace process. Asked whether they felt the peace process had given the Palestinians their rights, 58 per cent said no, 36 per cent said yes and a substantial 16 per cent said they had no opinion. The latter figure in particular contrasted sharply with the much greater degree of certainty revealed in response to the other four questions on Arab-Israeli related issues, to which the rate of non-response, or of no opinion, averaged a mere 3.5 per cent. This seemed to indicate that the Egyptian public felt it had its own axe to grind with Israel, over and above whether Israel restored to the Palestinians their land or no.
On domestic policy issues, Al-Ahram Weekly tried to asses the level of political participation and confidence in the multi-party system some 18 years after it was launched by President Anwar El-Sadat in 1976. The response should give political party leaders and social scientists a lot to think about in the coming period. One positive indication, however, lay in the fact that a substantial majority of those polled out in support of a multi-party system was beneficial, 73 per cent said yes, 14 per cent said no, and 13 per cent had no opinion. These results contrasted extraordinarily to the response to the question of whether the current multi-party system in Egypt was deemed beneficial. A majority of 48 per cent said no, only 36 per cent said yes, and 16 per cent had no opinion on this.
The sense of political alienation was further confirmed by a question asking people whether any of the political parties or tendencies currently working in the country represented them. Respondents were asked to choose a particular party or an overall political tendency irrespective of its legal status. Only 36 per cent could identify a political party or tendency as representing them, while a 40-per-cent majority felt that none of the political parties or tendencies in the country represented them, and- a response that registers the highest rate of non-opinion to any question in the poll- 22 per cent said they had no opinion.
The answers to this question seemed to confirm in a dramatic way what many political analysts have been suggesting for sometime, namely the existence of a large "silent majority" standing largely outside the arena of struggle between political parties and tendencies, and viewing it with a high degree of indifference or cynicism.
Among the 36 per cent who did feel that a political party or tendency represented them, a majority placed their confidence in the ruling National Democratic Party, with 21.3 of the total number of respondents saying that the NDP represented them. What many will find astonishing, however, is the relatively low showing of the Islamist tendency, which observers and analysts, while disagreeing on its relative political weight vis-a-vis the ruling party, have been virtually unanimous in ascribing the status of the strongest opposition force in the country.
In fact, it was the liberal Wafd Party that received this distinction in the Weekly's poll, with 7.7 per cent of the respondents saying it represented them. The combined showing of all Islamist groups came to 5.9 per cent, with 3.1 per cent of respondents saying that the Islamist tendency as a whole represented them, without specifying a particular group or party. 2.3 per cent chose the Islamist-oriented Labour Party, a mere 0.4 per cent specified the Muslim Brotherhood, and an even smaller group, 0,1 per cent chose the militant tendency represented by Al-Gama'at Al-Islamiya. The left of the political spectrum, represented by the Nasserist and Tagammu parties had the confidence of only 2.5 per cent of the respondents, with 1.3 per cent going to the Nasserists and 1.2 per cent to Tagammu.
It should be noted here, however, as Fergany does in detail below, that this, as well as al the other results, should be viewed in the context of the random sample's social and regional bias, leaning as it did towards urban, Lower Egypt and towards the more educated strata of society. Residents of Upper Egypt, for instance, where Islamism has its greatest political influence, accounted for 18 per cent of the sample.
The results of the poll were, nevertheless, highly significant in the way the low level of support for the Islamists as a political tendency contrasted with the high degree of sympathy expressed for the non-violent Islamist groups in general. Asked whether non-violent Islamist groups worked for the good of the people, 67 per cent of the respondents said yes , compared to 19 per cent who answered no, and 14 per cent who felt they could express no opinion on the matter. This seemed to confirm the observation made by some analysts that, in spite of the rise of political Islam, the influence of Islamism is still felt much more in the cultural and social spheres than in the political.
People's relative apathy towards the competing political parties and trends was naturally reflected in the interest taken in the parliamentary process, though to a lesser degree. Respondents were almost evenly split with regards to their voting intentions in the next elections for People's Assembly, which are due to take place in 1995. Fifty per cent said that they intended to vote in the coming elections, 48 per cent said they would not, and 2 per cent were undecided.
| ARCHIVES Letter from the Editor Editorial Board Subscription |
WEEKLY ONLINE: www.ahram.org.eg/weekly Updated every Saturday at 11.00 GMT, 2pm local time weeklyweb@ahram.org.eg |
 Al-Ahram Organisation |