Winds of change?
Using elections as a springboard, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has managed to keep all the aces in his hand. Iffat Malik reports from Islamabad
The 16th Prime Minister of Pakistan was sworn into office on Saturday, completing the transfer of power from a military to a civilian elected government. As Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali settles into his new position, many questions remain about the kind of government he will head and how long he will head it. Elections for Pakistan's National Assembly were held on 10 October and produced a hung parliament.
Most of the following six weeks were spent trying to form a coalition government. The pro- military, Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML- Q), had the largest number of seats in the Assembly (118), but was well short of the 172 required for an outright majority. It tried to agree a power sharing formula with the Islamist, Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA), holding 60 seats, but could not overcome fundamental differences over the role of the military. The MMA demanded that President Musharraf stand down as chief of army staff, seek validation of his presidency from the National and Provincial Assemblies, and remove the constitutional amendments he introduced over the past three years. These terms were unacceptable to Musharraf and the PML-Q.
The PML-Q then sought to form a coalition with Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP), which won 81 seats. Even though those attempts failed, the PML-Q did succeed in winning support from 10 members of the PPP, who had formed the so-called Forward Bloc. Thanks to their votes, as well as an additional 17 votes from the Mohajir Quami Movement (MQM) and a handful from smaller parties and independents, the PML-Q's prime ministerial nominee was able to secure 172 votes in the Assembly. His rivals, the PPP's Makhdoom Qureshi and the MMA's Maulana Fazalur Rehman, got 70 and 86 votes respectively.
Thus, Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali was sworn in as prime minister on 23 November. The 58-year old prime minister is a tribal leader from Baluchistan and a career politician. He was chosen by the PML-Q as a compromise nominee, after more senior party figures failed to resolve their rival claims to the prime ministership. Jamali is not very well known in Pakistan, and almost unheard of outside the country. He was first elected to the National Assembly in 1977. During his career as a politician he was appointed minister for water and power and deputy minister for rural development. He served as chief minister of his native Baluchistan province three times, most recently in 1996. Jamali was also a keen hockey player, although his considerable bulk demonstrates he has been off the pitch for quite a while.
Sworn in alongside Jamali on Saturday, were the 14 federal ministers and seven ministers of state who make up the 21-member cabinet. The party profile of the cabinet reflects the horse- trading done to make Jamali prime minister. Six of the 21 posts were given to members of the PPP Forward Bloc, whose 10 votes proved decisive in the elections. Three went to other small parties who voted for Jamali, and 12 to the PML-Q. However, this blatant display of "posts-for-votes" in the appointment of the new cabinet has attracted a lot of criticism.
The military's presence in politics was, in Musharraf's own words, supposed to "clean up" Pakistani politics. But it appears that the drive to secure power has caused the military to resort to the same underhand tactics as previous civilian rulers, with the top-brass flexing their considerable muscle to promote the PML-Q.
Four unelected advisers were also appointed on Saturday. They include former finance minister, Shaukat Aziz, who now becomes adviser for finance, revenue, economic affairs, planning and development. The only other member of Musharraf's cabinet to make it unscathed into the new one is education minister, Zubeida Jalal. She is also the only woman in the new cabinet. The faces around the cabinet table might have changed, but President Musharraf, who has just started another five-year term in that position, is clearly expecting policies to remain the same.
In a televised address to the nation on the eve of the vote, Musharraf lauded the achievements of his government. "The ship of the nation has been steered clear out of the stormy seas and is well set on its destination," he said. His clear message was that, if this success was to be sustained, the new civilian government would have to steer the same course.
He reiterated the same line while speaking to reporters after Saturday's swearing in ceremony. "Whatever projects have been started should be seen through to their logical end in these next five years so that Pakistan can progress and prosper," said Musharraf.
Shaukat Aziz's retention in the new cabinet is seen as a guarantee of economic policy continuity. On the foreign policy front, too, no one is expecting any changes. Prime Minister Jamali has already pledged his support for America in the so-called war against terror. "Pakistan has become a front-line state, and will remain one," declared Jamali.
Washington will no doubt be relieved that the moderate, pro-Musharraf Jamali has become prime minister. Had the PML-Q's negotiations with the PPP Forward Bloc not borne fruit, it could have had to deal with the pro-Taliban Fazalur Rehman instead. Musharraf's position as a "back-seat driver"(he stays on as army chief-of- staff and president), with the power to dismiss the government and dissolve the Assembly, is a further guarantee of foreign policy continuity.
President Musharraf has thus secured what he was always aiming for, namely, transfer of rule to a pliant civilian government, while retaining real power. But will Prime Minister Jamali remain pliant? And will he be able to hold together his bought coalition? These are the big question marks hanging over Pakistan's transition to democracy.
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : 28 Nov. - 4 Dec. 2002 (Issue No. 614)
Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2002/614/in4.htm